PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
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Best Picture
FrontrunnersAmerican Fiction (Amazon/MGM)Oppenheimer (Universal)Barbie (Warner Bros.)Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)Poor Things (Searchlight)Past Lives (A24)Maestro (Netflix)The Holdovers (Focus)The Zone of Interest (A24)All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
Major ThreatsNyad (Netflix)Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)Origin (Neon)Rustin (Netflix)Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)Air (Amazon/MGM)May December (Netflix)
PossibilitiesSaltburn (Amazon/MGM)Priscilla (A24)Ferrari (Neon)The Taste of Things (IFC)Dream Scenario (A24)Dumb Money (Sony)American Symphony (Netflix)The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
Can’t Yet CallThe Color Purple (Warner Bros.)The Iron Claw (A24)Napoleon (Apple/Sony)
Best Director
FrontrunnersGreta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcastChristopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
Major ThreatsYorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)Bradley Cooper (Maestro)Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)Celine Song (Past Lives)Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)Ava DuVernay (Origin)Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
PossibilitiesJimmy Chin and Chai Vasarhelyi (Nyad)Todd Haynes (May December) — podcastMichael Mann (Ferrari)Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)Sofia Coppola (Priscilla)Ben Affleck (Air) — podcastJoaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers and Justin K. Thompson (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse)
Can’t Yet CallBlitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)Sean Durkin (The Iron Claw)Ridley Scott (Napoleon)
Best Actor
FrontrunnersCillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)Bradley Cooper (Maestro)Colman Domingo (Rustin)Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Major ThreatsJeffrey Wright (American Fiction)Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcastBarry Keoghan (Saltburn)Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)Adam Driver (Ferrari)Matt Damon (Air)
PossibilitiesAlden Ehrenreich (Fair Play)Teo Yoo (Past Lives)Kôji Yakusho (Perfect Days)Benoît Magimel (The Taste of Things)Gael García Bernal (Cassandro)Paul Dano (Dumb Money)Taron Egerton (Tetris) — podcast
Can’t Yet CallZac Efron (The Iron Claw)Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)
Best Actress
FrontrunnersAnnette Bening (Nyad)Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcastMargot Robbie (Barbie) — podcastLily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
Major ThreatsNatalie Portman (May December) — podcastSandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)Greta Lee (Past Lives)Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast
PossibilitiesHelen Mirren (Golda) — podcastEve Hewson (Flora and Son)Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge)Phoebe Dynevor (Fair Play)Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders) — podcast
Can’t Yet CallFantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
Best Supporting Actor
FrontrunnersRobert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)Ryan Gosling (Barbie)Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcastCharles Melton (May December)
Major ThreatsRobert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcastJesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcastWillem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcastJohn Magaro (Past Lives)Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)Chris Messina (Air)
PossibilitiesJacob Elordi (Priscilla)Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)Jon Bernthal (Origin)Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)Eddie Marsan (Fair Play)
Can’t Yet CallColman Domingo (The Color Purple)Corey Hawkins (The Color Purple) — podcastTahar Rahim (Napoleon)Jeremy Allen White (The Iron Claw)
Best Supporting Actress
FrontrunnersDa’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcastJulianne Moore (May December)Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast
Major ThreatsPenélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcastLeslie Uggams (American Fiction)Erika Alexander (American Fiction)Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things)Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)Viola Davis (Air)
PossibilitiesClaire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcastIssa Rae (American Fiction) — podcastTracee Ellis Ross (American Fiction) — podcastAmerica Ferrera (Barbie)Patricia Clarkson (Monica) — podcastNiecy Nash-Betts (Origin)Julianne Nicholson (Dream Scenario)
Can’t Yet CallHalle Bailey (The Color Purple)Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)H.E.R. (The Color Purple) — podcastTaraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcastLily James (The Iron Claw) — podcastVanessa Kirby (Napoleon)Maura Tierney (The Iron Claw)
Best Adapted Screenplay
FrontrunnersAmerican Fiction (Cord Jefferson)Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)Poor Things (Tony McNamara)The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
Major ThreatsAll of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)Origin (Ava DuVernay)Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)
PossibilitiesNyad (Julia Cox)Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Schuker Blum)Ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin and Brock Yates)The Bikeriders (Jeff Nichols)Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
Can’t Yet CallThe Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)
Best Original Screenplay
FrontrunnersBarbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)Past Lives (Celine Song)The Holdovers (David Hemingson)Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari and Justine Triet)The Teacher’s Lounge (İlker Catak and Johannes Duncker)
Major ThreatsSaltburn (Emerald Fennell)Maestro (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)Fair Play (Chloe Domont)Air (Alex Convery)Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)
PossibilitiesMay December (Sam Burch and Alex Mechanik)Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece)Cassandro (David Teague and Roger Ross Williams) — podcast (Williams)Flora and Son (John Carney)
Can’t Yet CallThe Iron Claw (Sean Durkin)Napoleon (David Scarpa)
Best International Feature
FrontrunnersThe Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)The Taste of Things (France)The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)Perfect Days (Japan)20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Can’t Yet CallIo Capitano (Italy)Godland (Iceland)Shayda (Australia)Society of the Snow (Spain)Fallen Leaves (Finland)Blaga’s Lessons (Bulgaria)Four Daughters (Tunisia)About Dry Grasses (Turkey)Thunder (Switzerland)The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
Best Documentary Feature
FrontrunnersAmerican Symphony (Netflix)Kokomo City (Magnolia)Beyond Utopia (Roadside)20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)The Deepest Breath (Netflix)
Major ThreatsThe Eternal Memory (MTV)The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)The Mission (Nat Geo)Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)Still (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
PossibilitiesBobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)Every Body (Focus)King Coal (still seeking U.S. distribution)The League (Magnolia)Joan Baez: I Am a Noise (Magnolia)To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Can’t Yet Call32 Sounds (Abramorama)Black Ice (Lionsgate)A Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)Copa 71 (still seeking U.S. distribution)Defiant (still seeking U.S. distribution)Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Story (HBO)Hollywoodgate (still seeking U.S. distribution)Judy Blume Forever (Amazon)Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia)Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)The Mother of All Lies (still seeking U.S. distribution)Orlando, My Political Biography (Sideshow/Janus)Periodical (MSNBC)Uncharitable (Abramorama)What the Hell Happened to Blood, Sweat & Tears? (Abramorama)While We Watched (PBS)Your Fat Friend (still seeking distribution)
Best Animated Feature
FrontrunnersSpider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)Nimona (Netflix)
Major ThreatsThe Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)
Can’t Yet CallChicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)Leo (Netflix)Migration (Illumination)Robot Dreams (Neon)Stopmotion (IFC)Suzume (Toho)Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)Wish (Disney)
