Next year could mark the first time in the post-pandemic era that global box office revenue suffers a year-over-year downturn.
According to leading analytics firm Gower Street, worldwide movie ticket sales are projected to hit an estimated $31.5 billion, a five percent dip from an estimated $33.4 billion in 2023, according to the London-based firm’s annual forecast. That compares to $25.9 billion in 2022 and $21.3 billion in 2021, or — before COVID-19 arrived — $42.3 billion in 2019.
Gower Street’s report, issued on Tuesday, should come as no surprise to the global film industry. Hollywood’s historic labor strikes resulted in a slew of movies being delayed from 2024 to 2025 in what some say could result in a loss of as much as $2 billion to the overall tally.
“The impact of the recent writers’ and actors’ strikes on the release calendar, in terms of global-appeal Hollywood product, has been significant,” said Rob Mitchell, Gower Street’s director of theatrical insights. “That is the key driver of this slight regression in recovery momentum we’re seeing in 2024 that looks to postpone any chance of returning to pre-pandemic levels until 2025.”
Gower Street attributes the downturn to losing 50 percent of production time due to the strikes, versus a disinterest on the part of consumers in going to the cinema. This summer achieved pre-pandemic status thanks only to Barbeinheimer. “In fact, as July 2023 marked a record-breaking month at the global box office, we know that there is a robust audience demand for compelling theatrical releases,” said Mitchell.
Adds Gower Street CEO Dimitrios Mitsinikos, “based on productions currently on our radar, we expect 2025 to be a very good year at the global box office and hopefully a positive trend-setter for the second half of this decade.”
Moviegoing habits around the globe are still trying to find their footing after the COVID-19 crisis. While there have been gains every year, 2023 global revenue would still lag behind 2019 by 21 percent to 22 percent, while Gower Street’s projection for 2024 would rep a 25 percent slump from 2019. The good news: 2023 revenue will be up 29 percent over 2022, including an uptick of 20 percent to 22 percent in North America.
Per Gower Street, 2024 box office revenue in North America will come in at $8 billion, a full 11 percent behind 2023. And it would represent a 30 percent decline from the 2017-2019 average.
The 2024 foreign box office — excluding China — is anticipated to finish 7 percent behind 2023 at an estimated $15.6 billion, aided by local productions. This is still 21 percent behind the 2017-2019 average, however.
In China, box office revenue is expected to achieve a modest year-over-year gain of five percent in 2024 as the world’s most populous country embraces local fare over Hollywood product. Revenue is expected to hit $7.9 billion next year, compared to a projected $7.6 billion in 2023.
“The International market is a bit less impacted by the limited release calendar caused by the Hollywood strike, compared to domestic,” said Gower Street chief analyst Thomas Berane.
Gower Street will issue its final stats for 2023 in the first week of January.
