PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
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Best Picture
Nominees1. Oppenheimer (Universal)2. The Zone of Interest (A24)3. Poor Things (Searchlight)4. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)5. Barbie (Warner Bros.)6. The Holdovers (Focus)7. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)8. Maestro (Netflix)9. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)10. Past Lives (A24)
Best Director
Nominees1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)2. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)5. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Best Actor
Nominees1. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) — podcast2. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) — podcast3. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Best Actress
Nominees1. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)2. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast3. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)4. Annette Bening (Nyad) — podcast5. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees1. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)2. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)3. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)4. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast5. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)2. America Ferrera (Barbie)3. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) — podcast4. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast5. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) — podcast
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)2. Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)3. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)4. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)5. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees1. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)2. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)3. Past Lives (Celine Song)4. Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)5. May December (Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)
Best International Feature
Nominees1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)2. Society of the Snow (Spain)3. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)4. Perfect Days (Japan) — podcast (Wim Wenders)5. Io Capitano (Italy)
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)2. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)3. The Eternal Memory (MTV)4. Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)5. To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Best Animated Feature
Nominees1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)3. Nimona (Netflix)4. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)5. Robot Dreams (Neon)
Best Cinematography
Nominees1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)2. Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)4. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)5. El Conde (Edward Lachman)
Best Costume Design
Nominees1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)2. Poor Things (Holly Waddington)3. Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)5. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
Best Film Editing
Nominees1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)2. Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)3. The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)5. Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Nominees1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro & Lori McCoy-Bell)2. Poor Things (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & Josh Weston)3. Golda (Suzi Battersby, Ashra Kelly-Blue & Karen Hartley Thomas)4. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & Ahou Mofid)5. Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)
Best Original Score
Nominees1. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)3. Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)4. American Fiction (Laura Karpman)5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
Best Original Song
Nominees1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcasts (1 and 2)2. “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcast (Ronson)3. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon), Scott George4. “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson — podcast (Batiste)5. “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), Diane Warren — podcast
Best Production Design
Nominees1. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)2. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk & Adam Willis)4. Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)5. Napoleon (Elli Griff & Eli Griff)
Best Sound
Nominees1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell & Gary A. Rizzo)2. The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn)3. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & Dean Zupancic)4. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon & Mark Taylor)5. The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Best Visual Effects
Nominees1. Godzilla: Minus One (Kosuke Taguchi & Takashi Yamazaki)2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Theo Bialek, Stephanie Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot & Guy Williams)3. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One (Neil Corbould, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland & Alex Wuttke)4. Napoleon (Henry Badgett, Neil Corbould, Charley Henley & Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet)5. The Creator (Jonathan Bullock, Charmaine Chan, Ian Comley & Jay Cooper)
Best Animated Short
Nominees1. War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko (Brad Booker & Dave Mullins)2. Ninety-Five Senses (Jared Hess & Jerusha Hess)3. Letter to a Pig (Amit R. Gicelter & Tal Kantor)4. Our Uniform (Yegane Moghaddam)5. Pachyderme (Stéphanie Clément & Marc Rius)
Best Documentary Short
Nominees1. The ABCs of Book Banning (Trish Adlesic & Sheila Nevins) — podcast (Nevins)2. Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó (Sam Davis & Sean Wang)3. The Last Repair Shop (Kris Bowers & Ben Proudfoot)4. The Barber of Little Rock (John Hoffman & Christine Turner)5. Island in Between (S. Leo Chiang & Jean Tsien)
Best Live-Action Short
Nominees1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Wes Anderson & Steven Rales)2. Invincible (Samuel Caron & Vincent René-Lortie)3. Red, White and Blue (Nazrin Choudhury & Sara McFarlane)4. Knight of Fortune (Lasse Lyskjær Noer & Christian Norlyk)5. The After (Nicky Bentham & Misan Harriman)
