The upcoming release of A24’s Civil War during a contentious presidential election year comes amid worrying about the prospect of an actual civil war — or, at least, real-life political violence — and has some questioning the movie’s timing.
The film from acclaimed writer-director Alex Garland (Ex Machina) imagines a near-future dystopia where the United States has been torn apart under the authoritarian ruled of a three-term president (Nick Offerman). The story follows a journalist (Kirsten Dunst) as she makes her way across this freshly divided states of America (trailer below).
Civil War hasn’t been seen yet by the media or audiences (its world premiere is next week at the South by Southwest Film & TV Festival), so criticism of its content is arguably premature and — at minimum — lacks considerable context. The film’s trailers suggest Civil War isn’t some obvious left-wing/right-wing polemic given that Texas and California are allies in its fictional conflict. Still, given the Jan. 6 riots that attempted to de-certify the 2020 presidential election and the likelihood of a Joe Biden and Donald Trump re-match, some find it impossible not to see the movie as a pointed commentary on our current divisive times — regardless of its fictional premise — and question whether its release is appropriate coming seven months before the presidential election.
The bulk of such reactions to Civil War seem to come from the left side of the political spectrum, and their take goes like this: Regardless of the film’s (presumably pro-unity) message, the film is uncomfortably timely and its “us vs. us” warfare will become MAGA fantasy fuel.
“The idea of another American civil war happening today actually keeps me up at night,” wrote one reader on an American Civil War subreddit. “This is a movie that I want to keep far away from. Even if it’s based on a political scenario so far removed from our own. I just do not want to entertain the notion of something so horrible.”
“A movie about a second American Civil War in an election year in which the second American Civil War is a serious concern among law-enforcement and rational people alike?” wrote another.
Opined another: “There are other Timothy McVeighs out there who will be like ‘[this movie is] exactly what this country needs’ … The potential danger is that [right-wing] groups are not known for media literacy or nuance. And a psychotic gang of rednecks committing terrorism [in the film] to ‘own the libs’ might be obvious criticism to us, but might be interpreted as a role model to MAGA groups if not portrayed carefully.’”
“I know a ton of people (probably myself included) who don’t want to see it because its just kind of uncomfortable to watch a movie that we might be living in 4-5 years,” added another. “Unless this movie does something very clever with the premise, it’s just political porn essentially. Using political tensions going on right now as a crutch to get people emotionally invested.”
While civil war hand-wringing might sound like fringe thinking, a 2022 poll by YouGov and the Economist found that 40 percent of Americans believe a new civil war is “at least somewhat likely in the next 10 years.” A Zogby poll found similar. That number drops to 14 percent when you only include those who “strongly” believe it. Last week, Ru Paul drew headlines by declaring in a New Yorker profile that the U.S. is “moments away from fucking civil war. I’m fearing the absolute worst. All the signs are there.”
Civil war fears are enough of a concern that The New York Times has held a debate on the topic, while Politico announced in a recent headline that “the threat of civil breakdown is real.” Still, historians assure that an actual civil war “is really unlikely,” though one worrisomely added, “There are so many bad things that can happen well short of civil war.”
There are some on the right who have a different take on the film’s release. Some conspiracy-minded individuals believe the movie is “predictive programming” being released because they (there’s always a “they”) are preparing the public for what’s to come — namely, the Biden administration going to war with Southern states like Texas over the border crisis. Given Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s feud over border security has recently inspired literal “civil war” headlines in respectable publications, one can understand some degree of this concern (though not why the government would collaborate with a Hollywood studio to create a film to give moviegoers a heads up to their sinister plans).
“The Civil War movie being released in April is not a ‘coincidence,” wrote one self-described Trump supporter. “They’re literally projecting exactly where we’re headed. Texas protecting our Southern border will be the catalyst that sets it off. We’re entering a dark phase in our history and the current Traitor-in-Chief is absolutely at fault.”
There’s even a third online faction that isn’t necessarily on the right or left but are simply skeptical that the movie will have any notable real-world impact. One Reddit thread predicted the online Civil War debate will turn out just like the uproar that surrounded Todd Philips’ 2019 movie Joker — media reports fretted that the film’s Taxi Driver-like portrait of destructive outsider would inspire violent loners and incel-types to commit mass shootings, and then nothing happened.
In any case, such early debate could be good news for A24. Civil War — which opens April 12 — is reportedly the popular indie studio’s most expensive production to date and, given its level of investment, “A24 needs this to work” opined one industry insider. The Joker media frenzy helped propel the film to more than $1 billion at the box office.
One commenter argued, however, that the film’s hot button topicality could backfire if — heaven forbid — real-world violence did occur. In 2019, Universal took the dramatic step of preemptively pulling its red state/blue state Hunger Games-like satire The Hunt from release ahead of the 2020 election year after it was accused being politically inflammatory. The studio ultimately released the film six months later.
“I know why they are releasing it in an election year, but it also seems kind of dumb to release it in an election year as politically volatile as this one,” a reader wrote. “Not just for moral reasons (I worry a movie like this will just inflame things), but also because if any sort of political violence happens, they will likely have to push it back or pull it. I also think a lot of people are dreading the upcoming election, so seeing a movie about an American civil war probably doesn’t seem fun to them. This is way too much of a horror for me right now.” (A24 had no comment about the film’s release timing).
Yet a few voices in the debate over the film are decidedly pro-Civil War. These voices make some assumptions about the film’s content, but largely make the case that the film should be released this year because it’s likely going to do what sci-fi dystopias have done for decades: Take current anxieties and worrisome political or social trends and play them out in a way that’s cathartic and, hopefully, serves as a cautionary tale — just like how films throughout the Cold War dramatized the horrors of nuclear war.
“I guarantee you that the MAGA/Qanon people do not need an Alex Garland auteur piece to commit acts of violence,” wrote one defender, while another added: “This movie is a cautionary statement about the danger of political brinksmanship, polarization, and the importance of a free and effective media. It’s not at all a movie to allow MAGA nuts to act out their fantasy. It’s a direct indictment of their entire world view …. If there was any time for a scathing indictment of that form of political discourse, it’s now, and that is exactly what this movie will be.”
