Behind the scenes, filmmakers Phil Lord and Chris Miller weren’t the happiest of campers when their critical darling Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse opened to $35 million domestically in early December 2018. After all, the CGI-animated film had earned effusive reviews and a coveted A+ CinemaScore from audiences, with many predicting a $40 million opening or more.
Their angst turned out to be for naught. Thanks to exceptional word of mouth — the most precious of commodities to Hollywood marketers — the PG pic took off. Embraced by both families and fanboys, the Sony film topped out at $190 million domestically, an unheard of multiple. Expanding its marquee superhero franchise to include both an animated film series and a live-action stable of films was an IP coup, since it meant being able to grow the kid and family side of the aisle.
Paramount had much the same intention when making Transformers One, the latest installment in one of its most valuable franchises. Yet, despite great reviews and near-perfect audience exit scores, the film debuted to a soft $24.6 million over the Sept. 20-22 weekend instead of an expected $30 million to $35 million. Worse, it came in second behind the third weekend of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice ($25.9 million) in a surprise upset.
Insiders aren’t deluding themselves, and concede that consumers — particularly males ages 18 to 24 — weren’t as willing to embrace an animated Transformers movie after seven live-action films as they had hoped. Nor did enough families turn out. But they aren’t willing to concede defeat and say the movie could borrow a page from Spider-Verse and have long legs at the box office thanks to the same glowing word of mouth.
Comscore chief box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian agrees that the movie, based on the popular Hasbro toyline, could potentially recover. “Taking a movie franchise from live-action to animation is a challenge, and though the Spider-Verse series was able to make that leap successfully, that was more of an outlier and the result of other factors that played in its favor,” says Dergerabedian. “But fantastic reviews and solid audience scores could provide Optimus legs for Transformers One in the coming weeks.”
Wall Street analyst Eric Handler of Roth Capital Partners is less forgiving. “Transformers One had a very disappointing opening, especially given the high critic and audience scores. I’m not sure what caused the low turnout. Fortunately for the overall industry, the 3Q box office will exceed expectations and looks like it will finish up modestly relative to last year, compared to Wall Street estimates of being down mid-single to high single digits.”
According to PostTrak flash exit polls, 40 percent of the opening weekend audience for last year’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was in the 18-24 age range. That compares to 24 percent for Transformers One. “This just wasn’t ‘cool’ enough for that audience,” says one rival studio exec. But another rival exec argues that Across the Spider-Verse had the advantage of being a sequel.
Hasbro Entertainment and Paramount sources say Transformers One is hardly in financial peril, noting that the film’s $75 million budget was split three ways between Paramount, Hasbro and New Republic. Nor are Paramount and Hasbro bailing on future live-action Transformers films, with longtime franchise producer Lorenzo Di Bonaventura plotting a Transfomers-G.I. Joe crossover movie to star Chris Hemsworth, who happens to voice star in Transformers One.
Directed by Pixar alum Josh Cooley, Transformers One is an origin story that chronicles how two of the most iconic Transformers, Optimus Prime and Megatron, went from best friends to arch nemeses on their home planet Cybertron. Sources say it would have cost $300 million or more to recreate Cybertron for a live-action film. Animation cut that cost down dramatically.
The Transformers series began to see diminishing returns after the first four films, all of which were directed by Michael Bay. The glory days reached their zenith with the third and fourth installments, 2011’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon and 2013’s Transformers: Age of Extinction, both of which grossed north of $1.1 billion at the worldwide box office. Transformers: The Last Knight, the fifth and final title directed by Bay, grossed $602 million globally in 2017. In late 2018, Bumblebee topped out at $465 million, followed by $439 million for Transformers: Rise of the Beasts in 2023.
The series has always seen the majority of its grosses come from overseas. Transformers One has only rolled out in 40 percent of the international marketplace so far, earning $14 million, with many major markets yet to open. The pic has yet to unfurl in markets such as China, South Korea, Brazil, Italy, Germany, the U.K. and France.
The movie’s cast recently embarked on a whirlwind global tour, and Paramount is hopeful those efforts will pay off. Hemsworth and Brian Tyree Henry voice the two lead characters, with Keegan-Michael Key, Scarlett Johansson, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne and Jon Hamm also in the voice cast.
Domestically, next weekend’s entry of DreamWorks Animation’s and Universal’s children’s book adaptation The Wild Robot complicate matters in terms of posing competition for kids and parents.
“With The Wild Robot going after similar PG family audience, hopefully there’s enough room for both films to make their mark in this rather challenging late-September release corridor,” says Dergarabedian.
Transformers One proponents remain hopeful. “The story isn’t over,” says another insider. “After seven live-action movies, animation is an unproven medium, but I think people will find the movie.”
