As award season heats up, here are a dozen movies that could take the big prize — and how they might do it.
Published on November 2, 2024
Anora, Conclave and September 5
Courtesy of Neon; Philippe Antonello/Focus Features; Jürgen Olczyk/Paramount Pictures
‘Anora’
What Happens: An escort cuts a deal with an oligarch’s son. Then the gangsters get involved.Reason to Believe: Three of the last four Palme d’Or winners have made the best picture cut for Neon — and one won (Parasite).Reason to Doubt: Are the indie-ish Baker and his outré visions too much for some voters?
‘Blitz’
What Happens: A single mother and her son are separated in Blitz-era London.Reason to Believe: Period cred and past Oscar darling Steve McQueen.Reason to Doubt: Saving Private Ryan, Dunkirk, 1917: World War movies these days tend to come up short.
‘The Brutalist’
What Happens: An architect who escaped the Holocaust makes his way to the U.S. to live an epic life.Reason to Believe: A sweeping vision that clocks in at more than three hours.Reason to Doubt: A sweeping vision that clocks in at more than three hours.
‘A Complete Unknown’
What Happens: Bob Dylan plugs in at Newport, and everyone needs shelter from the storm.Reason to Believe: After zooming ahead with Ford v Ferrari, Mangold seeks the finish line. Also, Timothée Chalamet as an icon. Reason to Doubt: Does the rock-folk tension seem consequential enough in 2024?
‘Conclave’
What Happens: A pope dies, and everyone wants the big job.Reason to Believe: Delicious fun in serious clothing.Reason to Doubt: Is it about enough? Also, a divisive ending.
‘Dune: Part Two’
What Happens: More adventures of Paul Atreides as he forms new unions and wages new wars.Reason to Believe: A franchise and a director that have been building momentum for years.Reason to Doubt: Distant-planet epics and March releases often are forgotten.
‘Emilia Pérez’
What Happens: Your typical Spanish-language cartel thriller/trans-themed family drama with musical elements. Reason to Believe: The sheer audacity, the relevant topicality.Reason to Doubt: Is the Never-Netflix voter still a thing?
‘Gladiator II’
What Happens: A grown-up Lucius comes back to Rome to gladiate glory back to his people.Reason to Believe: Nostalgia … for both the Roman period and the days of studio historical epics. Reason to Doubt: “Didn’t we honor this movie in 2001?”
‘The Seed of The Sacred Fig’
What Happens: A family in repressive Iran is torn apart by politics. Reason to Believe: Geopolitical resonance and a director who escaped Iran with his movie.Reason to Doubt: The best picture doesn’t often do long, foreign-language dramas set halfway around the world.
‘September 5’
What Happens: One day in Munich in the ABC News control room during the 1972 Olympics.Reason to Believe: Sorkin-esque urgency about big media topics.Reason to Doubt: Global indies can struggle without as many crewmembers and filmmakers that voters know. Plus the fraught Israeli-Palestinian backdrop.
‘Wicked’
What Happens: Witches Elphaba and Glinda begin their journeys.Reason to Believe: Is it Cats or is it Chicago? Reason to Doubt: Is it Chicago or is it Cats?
‘The Wild Robot’
What Happens: Roz the Robot lands on an animal island and learns how to feel.Reason to Believe: An AI movie that’s heartfelt and accessible. Also, it’s already a hit.Reason to Doubt: Only three animated movies have ever been nominated; none have won.
This story appeared in the Oct. 30 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.
