Driven by enthusiasm, nerves or perhaps a bit of both, 76 million voters cast their ballot early this election season through mail-in ballots or in person, reports NBC News. While that number falls short of the 100 million who voted early in 2020 during the pandemic, it represents nearly half of the entire 2020 electorate and proves that early voting is becoming increasingly popular.
While early voting has encountered a few obstacles, such as ballot boxes being contested in Wisconsin or burned in places like Portland, Oregon, and Vancouver, Washington, it hasn’t stopped voters from casting ballots early, and 25 million more people did so than in 2016.
More Democrats took advantage of early voting than Republicans, with 41 percent of Democrats casting their votes early compared to 39 percent of Republicans, just as they did in 2020. However, Republicans have closed what used to be a 3 to 1 disadvantage with Democrats in early voting to less than 2 to 1, according to the NY Times. Donald Trump once discouraged the practice but has now been urging his supporters to vote as early as possible, and it appears they’ve heeded his call.
However, which presidential candidate has the edge in votes varies by state. The seven battleground states crucial to winning the Electoral College are of key significance.
In Georgia, a record-breaking four million early votes were cast (including in-person and mail-in ballots), with Republicans representing 48 percent of those votes and Democrats representing 45 percent. However, Democrats lead the number of mail-in ballots requested at 56 percent compared to Republicans’ 35 percent; mail-in ballots will continue to be accepted until polls close on Election Day. While Georgia has reliably chosen Republican presidential candidates since 1996, Georgia voters elected President Joe Biden in 2020 as well as two Democratic senators, largely due to Stacey Abrams’s prolific fundraising and registration efforts.
In North Carolina, early voting records were also broken, with more than 4.4 million votes cast. Republicans had a slight edge, representing 33 percent of those votes compared to Democrats, who had 32 percent. The same goes for the number of mail-in ballots requested. Donald Trump won North Carolina in 2020 and 2016 and hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Barack Obama in 2008.
In Pennsylvania, 1.7 million people cast their votes early, with Democrats leading Republicans by 24 percentage points (57 percent to 33 percent). Mail-in ballots requests show a similar breakdown with Democrats requesting 55 percent of the ballots compared to 33 percent of Republicans. The only way to vote early in Pennsylvania is through in person mail-in ballots known as on-demand mail voting where a voter requests a ballot in-person at a county elections office, fills out the ballot there and drops off the ballot in a drop box all in the same trip. Its popularity has led to long lines, particularly in suburbs outside of Philadelphia. Those lines were the subject of a lawsuit by the Trump campaign, which requested that the deadline to apply for an early mail ballot be extended so that people had more time to vote early. A judge upheld the request.
Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes of all the battlegrounds, it’s also one of the three “blue wall” states that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden regained in 2020. Right now, the latest NY Times polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump running neck and neck in the state.
The other swing states, including Michigan and Wisconsin, are also polling within the margin of error. The most significant difference shows Harris up three points in Nevada and Trump leading by four points in Arizona. Biden won all of these states in 2020.
It’s unclear who will win the presidency based on early voting alone. However, there are some promising signs for Harris: More women have voted early than men (53 percent to 44 percent), and Harris is leading among women by an average of 8 points, according to an analysis by Newsweek. Harris’s standing with women is likely boosted by her promise to enshrine the right to an abortion into law. The latest NBC News poll shows that Harris leads Trump on this issue by 20 points.
