It’s not at the level of Barbenheimer, but the combo of Universal’s musical Wicked and Paramount’s Gladiator II — call it Glicked, Wikiator or whatever you want — is making for a phenomenal weekend at the pre-Thanksgiving box office.
Based on early returns, Wicked is headed for a domestic debut of $117 million. While that’s behind Friday’s estimate of $120, it’s still a history-making number for a film based on a Broadway musical and ranks among the biggest openings of all time for a big-screen musical. Globally, the movie is anticipating a $165 million launch.
Gladiator II is projecting a $60 million domestic opening, a strong start for a male-skewing, swords-and-sandals film. (It’s expected to draw in huge numbers overseas.) Combined domestic revenue for all films is expected to come in at around $200 million this weekend, a gain of 70 percent over the same weekend last year, when holiday entries Napoleon and Wish opened.
Social media has been abuzz with speculation that Gladiator II and Wicked would replicate the Barbenheimer effect this weekend and be the perfect pairing in terms of attracting males and females to the multiplex. While they won’t come anywhere near matching the domestic openings of Barbie ($162 million) and Oppenheimer ($82.5 million), they are indeed appealing to nearly all demos, including playing to an ethnically diverse audience.
The Thanksgiving marquee will get even more interesting when Walt Disney Animation’s Moana 2 opens Nov 27. Led by Maona, the three films should result in the biggest five-day, Thanksgiving holiday (Wednesday through Sunday) of all time in terms of domestic box office revenue.
Fueled largely by females as expected, the well-reviewed Wicked earned a glowing A CinemaScore from audiences.
Filmmaker Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the popular Broadway musical boasts a high-profile cast led by Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo. Universal is taking a major gamble in making two movies, with part two of Wicked hitting theaters a year from now. The first one cost $150 million to produce before marketing.
Originally based on the best-selling novel by Gregory Maguire, Wicked tells the untold story of the witches of Oz, with Erivo as Elphaba and Grande as Glinda. Winnie Holzman, the stage production’s book writer, wrote the screenplay for Chu’s movie with Dana Fox. Academy Award-winning composer and lyricist Stephen Schwartz adapted the musical for the screen.
Directed by Ridley Scott, the $250 million Gladiator sequel is the top pick for males, both younger and older, and earned a B CinemaScore. It hits theaters 24 years after the first film and stars Paul Mescal, Denzel Washington, Pedro Pascal, Connie Nielsen and Fred Hechinger, among others.
If estimates hold, Gladiator II will mark the biggest opening in Scott’s career; ditto for Washington.
The film sees Mescal playing a grown-up Lucius Verus II, the nephew of Emperor Commodus from the original film, played by Joaquin Phoenix. Lucius returns to Rome after being forced into slavery to battle not as a ruler but as a gladiator out for revenge and power, seeking to return the glory of Rome to its people.
Updated numbers will be provided Sunday.
