‘Moana 2’ Eyes $12M+ Disney Thanksgiving Preview Record, ‘Wicked’ $16M+

EXCLUSIVE: We’re not even past Thanksgiving, and the box office is already busting at the seams. Tonight, I hear that Disney’s PG-rated Moana 2, which started previews at 2PM, is heading to around $12M+ today. That’s a massive Tuesday pre-Thanksgiving preview record for the House of Mouse, beating previous champ, 2018’s Ralph Breaks the Internet by an exorbitant amount of cash (that sequel did $3.8M). Tonight’s dollars get rolled into Wednesday’s dough. The sequel is expected to rake in a Thanksgiving 5-day opening record of $125M-$135M. Disney didn’t return request for comment on tonight’s estimates. In fact, no studios did.

Reviews for the Dwayne Johnson and Auli’i Cravalho reteam are 69% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, which is below the 77% certified fresh of Frozen II. Deadline critic Dessi Gomez exclaimed, “Moana 2 makes a satisfying splash as a sequel.”

Remember, it’s discount Tuesday, coupled with the fact that 83% K-12 schools and 62% colleges are off today per Comscore. Hence, the big business.

Meanwhile, Universal’s Wicked, despite its 2 hour 40 minute runtime to Moana 2‘s 100 minute weigh-in, continues to sweep up, heading for a $16M-$17M Tuesday, up 8% over its record November $15.8M Monday. As far as Tuesdays in November go, the Jon M. Chu directed title looks to be the second best currently behind Disney’s Frozen 2 which did $20.7M on Nov. 26, 2019.

On the high-end, the running total of the Ariana Grande-Cynthia Erivo starring title will stand at $145.2M. Certainly, before the end of the weekend, these witches are going to bury The Greatest Showman‘s domestic total of $174.3M. Heck, by tomorrow, they’ll be the highest grossing Universal feature adaptation of a Broadway musical at the domestic B.O. overtaking Les Miserables‘ $149.2M. Already, Wicked has surpassed the stateside final totals of Into the Woods ($128M) and both Mamma Mias! ($144.3M and $120.6M domestc). Broadway musicals aren’t dead.

Paramount’s Gladiator II is +25% currently from Monday’s $5.5M for a near $7M take. That will put the Ridley Scott epic’s domestic tally at $67.6M. Remember, it’s not just pulling in older men, but older women as well. Meaning, it’s the total date night film for the next few weeks.

For those keeping score, the biggest Thanksgiving five-day Wednesday-Sunday frame belongs to 2018, when Ralph Breaks the Internet led, that period amassing $315.6M per Comscore.