The year-end holiday marquee isn’t as crowded this year as it usually is, and there’s no Star Wars or Avatar, but Hollywood studios believe there’s still enough merriment to be had at the box office.
The action officially gets underway Dec. 20 when Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King debut at the domestic office. Both films are rated PG, a huge advantage in terms of attracting families.
Sonic — which has become a marquee franchise for Paramount and videogame maker Sega — is widely expected to top the weekend with a three-day launch of $60 million (exhibitors believe it has a shot at $70 million), followed by Mufasa with $50 million. Both films also launch overseas.
The Christmas corridor is the most unusual time of the year at the box office. That’s because every day can be like a Saturday or Sunday through New Year’s Day, resulting in unusually large multiples that are further helped by a relatively quiet January.
Outside of Stars Wars, Christmas titles aren’t known for mega openings. Even Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water didn’t shatter any records in their debuts, but kept playing and playing until they became No. 1 and No. 3 top-grossing films of all time globally, not adjusted for inflation.
Sonic 3 sees director Jeff Fowler reunite with returning cast members Jim Carrey, Ben Schwartz, James Marsden, Tika Sumpter, Idris Elba, Colleen O’Shaughnessey, Natasha Rothwell, Shemar Moore, Adam Pally and Lee Majdoub. Keanu Reeves joins the franchise as Shadow the Hedgehog, while other series newcomers include Alyla Browne and Krysten Ritter.
The story follows Sonic, Knuckles and Tails team to face their most powerful adversary yet, a mysterious villain with powers unlike anything they have faced before. With their abilities outmatched in every way, Team Sonic must seek out an unlikely alliance in hopes of stopping Shadow and protecting the planet.
Sonic 3 has been embraced by critics — casting Reeves was a smooth move — and boasts a franchise-best critics’ score of 88 percent on Rotten Tomatoes (that compares to 64 percent and 68 percent, respectively, for the first two).
Mufasa was directed by Barry Jenkins, with Lin-Manuel Miranda providing original songs. It is also garnering better reviews so far than 2019’s The Lion King, which made north of $1 billion globally, but are definitely mixed (it currently rests at 60 percent on Rotten Tomatoes).
An origin story, the musical-infused Mufasa tells the tale of two young cubs (Mufasa and Taka) who form a fast bond and become as close as brothers. Then, a threatening foe tests their bonds and forces them to embark on an adventure that will change their destinies and friendship.
Blending live-action filmmaking techniques with photoreal computer-generated imagery, the film’s all-star voice cast includes Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., John Kani, Tiffany Boone, Kagiso Lediga, Preston Nyman and Mads Mikkelsen, among many others.
On the awards front, Paramount will keep expanding Sept. 5, while A24 arranged for special advance screenings of the 3.5-hour long The Brutalist in Imax locations on Dec. 18 before it rolls the film out in select locations over the Dec. 20-22 weekend.
Universal opens vampire horror-fantasy Nosferatu nationwide on Christmas Day in order to capitalize on the long five-day holiday weekend (Wednesday-Sunday). The pic, starring Lily-Rose Depp, Nicholas Hope and Bill Skarsgård, is tracking to open in the mid-teen to $20 million range.
A number of other awards contenders will also try to use the long holiday weekend to their advantage, including the much buzzed-about Babygirl, starring Nicole Kidman, which A24 opens wide on Christmas Day alongside Amazon MGM Studios’ A Fire Inside, which was penned by Barry Jenkins. Searchlight will go more slowly and only open Timothée Chalamet’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Online in select theaters on Dec. 25.
Thanksgiving blockbusters Moana 2 (Walt Disney Animation) and Wicked (Universal) should also contribute to the Christmas coffers in a major way.
Disney has enjoyed a dramatic rebound at the box office this year, and on Thursday crossed the $2 billion mark in 2024 domestic ticket sales, a feat no other studio is expected to match this year. Overseas, Disney is approaching $3 billion, putting its yearly haul at an industry-best $5 billion-plus. The next-closest studio domestic is Universal with more than $1.7 billion in domestic ticket sales (Universal stole the domestic and global marketshare crown from Disney last year, something no studio had been able to do in years).
To date, 2024 domestic revenue is trailing behind 2023 by 4.6 percent, according to Comscore. That’s a marked improvement over pre-Thanksgiving, when the deficit stood at 11 percent in mid-November. Final revenue for the year in North America is expected to come in at $8.6 billion or higher but it all depends on the final Christmas stretch.
Gower Street Analytics, based in London, is more bullish in predicting that 2024 domestic revenue will reach $8.8 billion in 2024 and $21.7 billion at the international box office for a global total of $30.5, down notably from $34 billion in 2023. Gower — like many others — are predicting gains in 2025, or a global haul of $33 billion.
