Sonic the Hedgehog 3 has emerged as the dominant winner in its head-to-head box office showdown against Mufasa: The Lion King. After grossing $25.7 million domestically on Friday, the threequel is projected to earn around $70.5 million during its opening weekend. Meanwhile, Disney’s Mufasa is off to a rough start. The prequel earned just $13.3 million domestically on its first day, and it’s estimated to bring in somewhere between $36-38 million over the weekend.
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According to Deadline, this weekend’s high-profile new arrivals secured the top two spots on the box office charts this weekend. The rest of the top five should be rounded out by Wicked ($14 million), Moana 2 ($12.7 million), and another fresh release, Homestead ($5.5 million).
For a few weeks now, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 has been projected to top Mufasa at the box office, but initially, it was thought to be a much closer race. When the first estimates came out, both were expected to open in the $50-55 million range, but Sonic 3 has clearly pulled away as the overwhelming audience favorite, continuing the franchise’s trend of being a reliable moneymaker for Paramount. The original film opened with $58 million back in 2020, while Sonic the Hedgehog 2 debut with $72.1 million. There’s still a chance Sonic 3 could outgross its predecessor in its debut; these figures are just estimates, not official numbers.
[Related: How Sonic the Hedgehog 3 Sets Up the Sonic 4 Movie]
In contrast, Mufasa didn’t even open in the same ballpark as 2019’s The Lion King remake, which broke box office records with a $191.7 million U.S. debut. Jon Favreau’s film went on to gross over $1 billion worldwide and became one of the year’s highest-grossing titles, feats Mufasa will not replicate. The prequel posted one of the lowest debuts among Disney’s live-action reimaginings; it couldn’t even top 2019’s Dumbo ($45.9 million).
In addition to being the latest installment in a hit franchise, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 had the benefit of positive reviews. Thanks to the film’s zany sense of fun and Keanu Reeves’ performance as Shadow the Hedgehog, many felt it was the best entry in the Sonic series. That word-of-mouth gave Sonic the Hedgehog 3 a boost to rise above its competition. On the other hand, reviews for Mufasa were decidedly mixed, which likely hurt its box office prospects. Budgeted at $200 million, Mufasa will need a strong showing overseas in order to turn a profit. It will be interesting to see how strong its legs are during the rest of the holiday season.
Prior to Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s release, Paramount cast a vote of confidence in the movie by green-lighting a fourth installment, which is already targeting a spring 2027 premiere. The box office performance of Sonic 3 illustrates the studio was wise to continue investing in the property, especially since the creative team keeps finding exciting ways to tease audiences with what’s next (see: the Sonic 3 post-credits scenes). Sonic 3 should prove to have a lengthy, fruitful run in theaters, as it won’t face any direct competition for its target demographic.
