Talk about a nail-biter.
Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King and Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 are in a close battle for the Christmas box office crown as a topsy-turvy year at the box office comes to a close.
Mufasa is tipped to win the long five-day holiday weekend (Wednesday through Sunday) with an estimated $61 million, versus an expected $59 million for the Sonic threequel. There’s a caveat, though — Sonic 3 could win the three-day weekend with an estimated $37.5 million, versus $34 million to $35 million for Mufasa.
Both titles opened last weekend, with Sonic 3 becoming an instant crowd-pleaser and handily beating Mufasa. And on Friday, it raced past the $100 million mark domestically after topping the day with an estimated $12.6 million.
Mufasa rebounded after its disappointing opening as more families became available, but still lags behind Sonic overall with a domestic total of $88.4 million through Friday (it placed No. 2 for the day with $12 million).
They are hardly the only two movies making noise in what’s turning out to be a very merry Christmas for a flurry of films.
Robert Eggers and Focus Features’ new star-studded vampire pic Nosferatu, one of several films opening nationwide on Christmas Day, looks to post an impressive five-day opening of $39 million to $40 million. That’s well ahead of expectations. The male-skewing movie — starring Lily-Rose Depp, Nicholas Hoult and Bill Skarsgard — earned a B- CinemaScore, which isn’t bad for a horror title.
Rival specialty distributor Searchlight Pictures is also smiling. Timothée Chalamet’s critically acclaimed A Complete Unknown, also opening Wednesday, is likewise doing far more than expected and is on course to sing to $22 million for the five days. The film earned a perfect A CinemaScore from audiences (so far, the movie is skewing female and older), and marks Searchlight’s best three-day debut since before the pandemic.
A24’s much-buzzed-about Oscar hopeful Babygirl, starring Nicole Kidman, is eyeing a $7 million five-day opening after earning a B- CinemaScore. The distributor is also handling awards frontrunner The Brutalist, which is bypassing a nationwide release in favor of a traditional platform rollout that sees it debut in six locations this weekend. If estimates hold, it could post a pleasing location average in the $57,000 range.
Amazon MGM Studios’ A Fire Inside, penned by Mufasa director Barry Jenkins, is looking at a $4.2 million five-day opening.
Overall, the year-end has been good news for the box office, with the year-over-year deficit narrowing from 11 percent in mid-November to 4 percent now. The bonanza kicked off at Thanksgiving with the potent combo of Moana 2, Wicked and Gladiator II, all of which remain high up on the box office chart.
