SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart…Not counting the 2021 pandemic year when all theaters were closed, it’s the second lowest MLK 4-day weekend of the last 10 years with the marketplace estimated to do $101.2M. The last time it was this low was 2022 with $85M, and that’s when Paramount/Spyglass’ Scream led with $33.8M. Pin that to lack of product, even though Spider-Man: No Way Home was second with $24.2M, and some Covid jitters.
You can’t complain and say people don’t go to movies over MLK weekend: There’s just nothing they’re craving to see. The MLK 4-day weekend with the right movies has the power to do $200M-plus; 2020 led by Bad Boys for Life amassed an overall weekend total of $205.3M while 2015 remains a record for the entire marketplace at $250.8M; that’s when Clint Eastwood’s highest grossing movie American Sniper was No. 1 with a wide break of $107.2M; still the ‘opening’ record for the holiday frame.
This weekend, it’s about limited attraction to what’s out there. Mufasa‘s estimated $16.5M 4-day tally is the lowest for a No. 1 movie over MLK (again, not counting 2021) since 1997 when the Chris Farley comedy Beverly Hills Ninja opened to $12.2M. Since its opening five weekends ago, this is the second time that Mufasa has led the weekend box office.
‘One of Them Days‘
Sony
One of Them Days is second with $14M-$15M over 4-days with an A- CinemaScore, 84% positive and 63% definite recommend on PostTrak. Why this R-rated comedy isn’t doing more with these exits, that’s on you, Sony. OK, so it’s higher than the tracking of $8M-$10M, but you can’t deny these excellent exits. Women are giving it 93% on PostTrak, while women under 25 are rolling in the aisles with a 97% grade. The studio’s intent has been about returning audiences to cinemas for genres that were lost to streaming, ala rom coms and comedies (the Jennifer Lawrence R-rated comedy opened in the summer of 2023 to $15M over 3-days and reached $50.4M). The difference here between One of Them Days and Anyone But You is that the latter had the Christmas-New Year’s bump. At least we can understand the exits (C-) to box office yield for Blumhouse/Universal’s lackluster Wolf Man at $12M over 4-day.
One of Them Days is drawing a 69% female audience that’s 46% Black, 24% Latino and Hispanic, 22% Caucasian, and 4% Asian. The 25-34 year old set is the biggest demo at 41%, followed by 18-24 at 30%, and 25% of the audience over 35. One of Them Days is playing best in the West, South Central, South and East with LA’s AMC Grove 14 the top venue in the nation to date with around $20K.
Wolf Man is no ape, ape man as the Kinks would say with audiences on PostTrak giving the R-rated horror pic 54% positive and a very low 34% definite recommend (yikes). Mostly men at 60% with the largest demo being 25-34 at 38% and 24% between 18-24. Diversity demos are 47% Caucasian, 29% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black, 8% Asian, and 4% Native American/other. Imax and PLFs are driving 41% of the weekend, but clearly it’s not giving this Leigh Whannell more testosterone. Best markets for Wolf Man is West, South Central and Mountain areas with the AMC Burbank 30 the best cinema so far with just under $20K.
One indicator of how strongly a studio is pushing their movie is in the one-sheets they generate. Guess who has the most? Lionsgate’s Den of Thieves 2: Pantera with 8. Wolf Man has five, one pushing the film in 4DX, while One of Them Days only has two. PostTrak says that 56% went to One of Them Days for SZA and Keke Palmer, whereas close to 50% went to Wolf Man because it’s a horror movie.
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FRIDAY PM: After everyone ran to the movies over the holidays, they’re doing something else this weekend with Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King looking to upset the MLK 4-day frame with an estimated $16M take in its fifth weekend. That’s easily the lowest post-Covid No. 1 haul for a movie and nothing for the industry to brag about.
Two newcomers, Sony’s One of Them Days at $13M over 4 days and Blumhouse/Universal’s Wolf Man at $12M, aren’t doing the biz any favors. Both are low-cost movies at $14M and $25M, respectively, before P&A spend. Hopefully, with its great exits and reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, One of Them Days finds an audience. The current $11.7M 3-day on last year’s Blumhouse January title Night Swim is bigger than Wolf Man‘s.
Social media analytics firm RelishMix shows that social media universe reach on Wolf Man at 136.5M is running close to 50% behind the average norm for a wide horror release. Julia Garner is the pic’s biggest social media star, with an audience of 1.5M on Instagram. RelishMix noticed that bad word-of-mouth: “Mixed negative-leaning chatter on Wolf Man finds some viewers taking umbrage with the look of the film, from the cinematography to the design of the titular creature. Comments include, ‘They’ve clearly gone for a more human-like werewolf design, which I get is not a lot of people’s preference,’ and, ‘A furless werewolf is not a werewolf in my books!’
One of Them Days‘ social media universe across TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube and Instagram stands at 116.6M which is +2% versus comedy norms. Cast activation component on the R-rated movie is strong with SZA’s social network at 36M and Keke Palmer’s at 24.5M.
Reports RelishMix: “Positive-leaning convo on One of Them Days is strong from audiences gearing up for a fun comedic time at the movies. The cast, particularly Keke Palmer is enticing many towards the film, sharing, ‘This is already a must see. KEKE and Sza and Katt Williams lol yes,’ and, ‘Keke low-key one of the best comedic actresses out now.’ Audiences feel this is similar to other black-led comedies, with comments like, ‘This has Friday vibes all over it. Can’t wait to see it,’ and, ‘It’s giving Insecure vibes but as a movie.’”
Focus Features
With an anticipated 4-day of $5M in it fourth go-round, Focus Features’ Nosferatu is heading for a $90.2M cume, $6.6M shy of overtaking Downton Abbey as the label’s highest-grossing movie ever. As we told you Thursday, the Robert Eggers-directed movie is the second-biggest stateside for the Universal specialty label.
Mufasa: The Lion Kings (Dis) 3,555 theaters, Fri $2.3M, 3-day $12M (-15%), 4-day $16M, Total $210.3M/Wk 5
One of Them Days (Sony) 2,675 theaters, Fri $4.6M, 3-day $11M, 4-day $13M/Wk 1
Wolf Man (Uni) 3,354 theaters, Fri $4.5M, 3-day $10.5M, 4-day $12M/Wk 1
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Par) 3,306 theaters, Fri $1.8M, 3-day $8M (-30%), 4-day $10.4M, Total $218.2M/Wk 5
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (LG) 3,008 theaters, Fri $2.1M 3-day $7.45M (-50%), 4-day $9M, Total $28.5M/Wk 2
FRIDAY AM: Just bracing you for it, but it’s going to be a rather dull MLK weekend at the box office, that is unless Sony’s R-rated femme comedy One of Them Days surprises.
Post Covid, the No. 1 movie over MLK weekend has been able to do north of $33M over four-days; that is for either an opening title or holdover.
This weekend, Universal/Blumhouse’s Wolf Man, despite its low cost of $25M before P&A, is only expected to bring in $20M over 4-days; no M3GAN. Yesterday in previews that started at 2PM, the Leigh Whannell directed, written and EP’ed R-rated horror movie did $1.4M, which is a little more than what Lionsgate’s Den of Thieves ($1.35M) did last Thursday, and it’s a little lighter than the filmmaker’s pre-Covid The Invisible Man which did $1.65M in previews before a $28.2M opening. Wolf Man, which stars Julia Garner and Christopher Abbott, is booked at 3,354 theaters. Rotten Tomatoes reviews at 55% and audience score of 67% are lower than Invisible Man’s 91% certified fresh reviews and 88% score.
One of Them Days
Sony
Sony’s SZA and Keke Palmer comedy, One of Them Days, has great reviews at 96% fresh and audience reactions of 94%. The upside is that it’s the first female Black R-rated comedy since 2017’s Girls Trip. But why isn’t it projected to open higher? The 3-day is projected at $7M-$9M, with the four-day aimed at double digits. Pic follows best friends and roommates Dreux (Keke Palmer) and Alyssa (SZA) who are about to have ‘One of Them Days.’ When they discover Alyssa’s boyfriend has blown their rent money, the duo finds themselves going to extremes in a comical race against the clock to avoid eviction and keep their friendship intact. Previews last night which started at 2PM did $1.3M at 2,402 locations. By comparison, Girls Trip did $1.7M in previews before an $11.7M Friday, $31M opening. Prior to its opening, Girls Trip was projected to be in the low-to-mid $20M-plus range. One of Them Days is produced by Girls Trip producer, James Lopez.
Tracking service Quorum says this morning in their note: “Wolf Man and One of Them Days arrive in theaters from opposite directions. Wolf Man has high awareness, high interest, and a solid unaided of 6% (the same as Nosferatu on its day of release). The downside is that reviews for Wolf Man have been lukewarm. One of Them Days has lower awareness and interest and has yet to reach 1% unaided awareness, but it’s getting glowing reviews. What does it mean? Expect Wolf Man to have the bigger opening, but if word-of-mouth is weak, it could open at the lower end of projections. Conversely, if One of Them Days gets good word-of-mouth, it could surprise to the upside.”
Gerard Butler in ‘Den of Thieves 2: Pantera’
eOne Films
Lionsgate’s Tucker Tooley co-financed Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is looking to ease -45% to -50% in weekend 2 with $7.5M to $8.3M over the 3-day. The first 2018 movie had a hold of -43% in its second weekend. First week of Den of Thieves was $20.1M while part 2 here grossed $19.5M in its first week. Den of Thieves ended its run at $44.9M.
Previous Post Covid No. 1 titles over MLK weekend include Avatar the Way of Water ($39.8M, 2023), Scream ($33.8M, 2022), and last year’s Mean Girls ($33.6M).
Week’s top 5 is as follows:
1.) Den of Thieves 2 (LG) 3,008 theaters Thu $843K (-14% from Wed), Wk $19.5M/Wk 1
2.) Mufasa (Dis) 3,620 theaters, Thu $866K (-11%), Wk $18.7M, $194.2M/Wk 4
3.) Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Par) 3,582 theaters, Thu $589K (-11%), Wk $14.3M, Total $207.9M/Wk 4
4.) Nosferatu (Foc) 3,082 theaters, Thu $659K (-15%), Wk $10M/Total $85.2M, Wk 3
5.) Moana 2 (Dis) 3,170 theaters, Thu $378K (-6%), Wk $8.3M, Total $436.7M/Wk 7
