‘Thunderbolts*’ Eyes $70M-$75M Opening, ‘Sinners’ $30M+ 3rd Weekend

SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart…Marvel Studios and Disney’s Thunderbolts* has a shot at coming in a bit better for the weekend at $73M-$77M. As we told you, Friday was close to $32M, Disney call it at $31.5M.

While we’d expect more and want more from Marvel during the first weekend of summer, when you include Thunderbolts* in with all the other holdovers in the marketplace, there’s nothing to complain about with all titles doing an estimated $145M this weekend. This is where originals now live with Marvel post Covid. However, what Thunderbolt* has going for itself are its exits. Audiences gave it a solid A- to the B- they smacked Captain America: Brave New World with, and the Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, David Harbour, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Hannah John-Kamen, and Geraldine Viswanathan movie has a great 71% definite recommend on PostTrak. All of that bodes well for this pic holding in the summer to come. You’ll remember, there was some cynicism with the opening of Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 with a $118.4M opening, and that yielded a -19% ease in its second weekend and a 3x domestic multiple with a near $359M.

More upbeat results from Thunderbolts*: 75% told PostTrak they want to see a sequel, while 40% said they went to watch because of the cast, while 53% mentioned the big reason why they bought a ticket was because it’s a Marvel movie. Diversity demos are 42% Caucasian, 26% Hispanic and Latino, 17% Black and 10% Asian. Men over 25 came in at 45%, women over 25 at 25%, men under 25 at 20%, while and women under 25 at 10%. This is a very similar turnout in terms of demo ages as Captain America: Brave New World; men under 25 were a little lower at 18%. Also diversity demos on that movie were 36% Caucasian, 26% Hispanic and Latino, 23% Black and 10% Asian.

Meanwhile, Warner Bros’ Sinners is shaping up for a massive $33M third weekend, -28%.

The Alec Baldwin Rust western opened on 115 theaters to a very low estimated $25K or $217 per screen. That’s not good. But more on that in a minute.

AFTERNOON UPDATE: Marvel Studios and Disney’s Thunderbolts* is looking at $32M today, including last night’s $11.5M previews, for what’s shaping up to be a $70M-$75M opening at 4,330 theaters, which has more or less been for the course for an MCU original title post-Covid. The movie has great reviews, and immediate thumbs-up from fans. Clearly by tomorrow night, we’ll know if it catches on and enters the Guardians of the Galaxy threshold ($94.3M), but as of this minute, no one is seeing it at that altitude.

The opening of Thunderbolts* alone will exceed the total amount that all films made a year ago during the first frame of May ($73.9M, per Box Office Mojo). That’s because the strikes pushed the release of Marvel’s Deadpool & Wolverine to late July; Universal’s The Fall Guy didn’t excite anyone with a $27.7M start. The top five movies alone have the potential to do $137M in business, making this a solid weekend.

Staying strong is Warner Bros’ Sinners with $9M today and 3-day between $30M-$35M at 3,347 — a terrific hold at -23% to -34% in Weekend 3. By comparison, Jordan Peele’s Get Out posted a third weekend of $20.7M in 2017, -27%. Cume by Sunday will be $176.6M-$181.6M.

Warners had bragging rights for third place as well with Legendary co-production A Minecraft Movie at 3,571 sites doing $3M today, $13M, -43%, in its fifth weekend for a running total of $397.5M.

Fourth goes to Amazon MGM Studios’ The Accountant 2 with a Friday of $3M, second weekend of $11.2M, -51%, and a running total of $41.6M, which is 12% behind the first 2016 movie at the same point in time.

Sony Screen Gems’ Until Dawn at 3,055 locations is in fifth with $1M in its second Friday and $3M second weekend, -59% for an estimated running total by Sunday of $13.8M.

UPDATE AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Disney’s official figure Thunderbolts* last night is $11.5M. More good news for Thunderbolts* this weekend, out of the gate it has 4 1/2 stars on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak and a great 74% definite recommend. Also, 5 stars with kids under 12 and parents.

The figure isn’t that far from the $12M chalked up by February’s Captain America: Brave New World; that preview repped 29% of the Anthony Mackie’s pic first Friday which turned into an $88.8M 3-day. Last night’s money for the Florence Pugh, David Harbour, Sebastian Stan movie is also under that of Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 which posted $17.5M in previews for a $48.1M Friday and $118.4M 3-day.

Warner Bros’ Sinners ends its second week with $69M at 3,347 theaters, -11%, and a running cume of $146.6M. Yesterday was $4.8M, -20% from Wednesday. Even with Sinners ceding its premium screens this weekend, it’s expected to have a robust hold. It was announced that the Ryan Coogler directed title will return to nine select Imax 70MM theaters from May 15-21.

Disney/20th Century Studios’ Star Wars: The Revenge of the Sith didn’t play on Thursday, however, the re-releases gross through Wednesday is $34.1M. The lifetime cume of the George Lucas Episode III is $414.3M.

Amazon MGM Studios’ The Accountant 2 is third for the week with $31.6M at 3,610, after a $1.2M Thursday, -18% from Wednesday. The Ben Affleck Artists Equity sequel is slightly behind the original movie’s first week tally of $33.8M.

Warner Bros’ A Minecraft Movie ends its fourth week with $27.2M at 3,841 sites, -49%, and a running cume of $384.5M. Thursday’s take was $950K, -7% from Wednesday.

Sony Screen Gems’ Until Dawn has a first week of $10.5M after a $527K Thursday, -5% from Wednesday.

EXCLUSIVE: Disney and Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is off to a very good start with around $11M tonight we hear from non-Disney sources. Always know that forecast can swing higher or lower by the time late night monies come in Friday AM. Hopefully tonight’s previews are an indicator to better days at the summer B.O.; that the current momentum from A Minecraft Movie and Sinners keeps up.

Marvel had to postpone last year’s summer kickoff pic, Deadpool & Wolverine, to late July due to the impact of the strikes.

Not only does the Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan Thunderbolts* have a solid start, but it’s also winning fans over tonight with a 96% Rotten Tomatoes audience score after its 88% certified fresh rating with critics. That’s better than the MCU’s Captain America: Brave New World from February (48% critics, 78% audience) which saw an $88.8M 3-day, $100M 4-day over the Valentines Day/President Days weekend which translated to $200.2M stateside and $414.8M global take.

RELATED: ‘Thunderbolts*’ Cast Guide: Who Plays Who In The Anti-Hero Film?

Tonight’s previews are roughly a million under Captain America: Brave New World’s $12M, but they’re also ahead of 2021’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings ($8.8M) and Eternals ($9.5M). The weekend projection yesterday for the ragtag superhero movie which is sort of a sequel to Disney+ series The Falcon and Winter Soldier and Hawkeye, as well as the movie Black Widow, was $70M-$75M stateside at 4,300 sites and $175M on the high end of its global start. Thunderbolts* (not to be confused with Thundercats) has all the premium ticket upcharges in Imax, Dolby, ScreenX, 4DX, etc.

We told you in the past week that previews/presales for Thunderbolts* are behind Captain America: Brave New World. However, Presales for the Jake Schreier directed MCU title continue to be ahead of 2021’s Shang Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings ($75.3M) and Eternals ($71.2M opening).

We’ll have more intel on Warner Bros’ Sinners‘ third weekend tomorrow, however, some rivals are estimating that the Ryan Coogler directed, Michael B. Jordan starring period vampire movie is headed to a 3-day of $35M, which would be a remarkable dip of -23%. Forecasts had Sinners easing -25% to -30% in its third weekend for $32M-$34.2M yesterday.

RELATED: ‘Thunderbolts*’ L.A. Premiere Photos: Florence Pugh, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, David Harbour & More