While its fate isn’t yet sealed, there’s a good chance the multiverse-minded Karate Kid: Legends will open behind expectations at the domestic box office, despite teaming original star Ralph Macchio and beloved action legend Jackie Chan, who starred in the 2010 redux.
Sony is predicting a third-place opening for the male-fueled film in the $21 million to $23 million range (rival studios show the movie coming in closer to $19 million). Heading into the weekend, tracking had it at $25 million; three weeks ago, that number was a far more promising $35 million). Regardless of where it lands, Sony remains confident that the PG-13 film will sport strong chops, thanks to an A- CinemaScore and solid exits. And its net production budget was a modest $45 million before marketing.
Critics are far more divided than audiences when it comes to Karate Kid: Legends, which features Ben Wang in the titular role. His character is mentored by both the characters played by Macchio, star of the classic 1984 movie and, far more recently, Netflix’s acclaimed Cobra Kai series, which ran for six seasons and ended earlier this year.
In 2010, Sony successfully reinvigorated the franchise with The Karate Kid, starring Chan opposite Jaden Smith. The movie, opening to $55 million domestically, was one of the year’s top hits.
Box office pundits are already speculating that franchise fans may have stated by Cobra Kai, at least for the time being. The series was viewed as a sequel to the first three films; the threequel was released in 1989. They add that middling reviews for Legends certainly aren’t helping.
And then there’s the Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible factor. Both movies continue to do strong business after serving up a record Memorial Day weekend at the box office.
The bounty was led by Disney’s Lilo & Stitch, which exceeded all expectations in opening to nearly $183 million domestically and shattering numerous records. The film, which easily remains No. 1 by leaps and bounds, is expected to earn $60 million or more this weekend, one of the best sophomore showings ever for a Disney live-action redo. Lilo should finish Sunday with a massive domestic haul of $280 million.
Paramount and Skydance’s Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning, starring Tom Cruise in his final turn as uber spy Ethan Hunt, is firmly seated in second place with an estimated sophomore outing of $28 million for a domestic tally of $122 million. It crossed $100 million on Friday in only its eighth day in release after opening to a franchise-best $79 million over the long holiday weekend.
Karate Kid isn’t the only new nationwide offering. A24’s highly anticipated thriller Bring Her Back, starring Sally Hawkings, is headed for a pleasing fifth-place finish with $6.5 million-$8 million.
At the specialty box office, Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme is opening in six locations and is on course to score the top per-location average of the year following the film’s debut at the Cannes Film Festival. Focus Features and Indian Paintbrush partnered on the film.
