by Mary Spiller
August 2, 2025
In an imaginary presidential rematch, former President Barack Obama would decisively defeat Donald Trump by 11 points, according to a new national poll.
Former President Barack Obama would win by a significant margin over Donald Trump if the two were allowed to run in a theoretical third-term race, according to a new poll from Daily Mail and J.L. Partners.
The national survey, conducted among 1,013 registered voters between July 9 and 10, found that Obama would receive 52% of the vote to Trump’s 41%. The 11-point lead exceeds the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
While neither candidate is legally eligible for another term under the 22nd Amendment — which limits presidents to two terms — the poll sheds light on the continued popularity and political influence both men hold in American politics.
The hypothetical matchup highlighted deep partisan divisions, but also underscored Obama’s enduring appeal across key demographics. Among Hispanic voters, Obama earned 73% support, and among Black voters, he secured 68%. Among independent voters, 50% chose Obama, compared to 39% for Trump.
While Obama outperformed Trump, other prominent Democrats didn’t fare as well. In similar theoretical matchups, Trump narrowly defeated both former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden, according to the same poll. Favorability ratings also showed Obama ahead at 59%, compared to Trump’s 44%.
A separate survey conducted earlier this year by Overton Insights from March 24 to 28 showed similar results, with Obama holding a 53% to 47% lead over Trump in a hypothetical 2028 race. That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Despite their lasting influence, both men are barred from future presidential campaigns unless the Constitution is amended — a difficult process requiring approval from two-thirds of Congress and three-quarters of state legislatures.
Trump, however, has hinted at alternative paths. In a March 2025 interview with NBC News, he remarked, “A lot of people want me to do it. But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.”
Retired U.S. Army General Barry McCaffrey voiced concern over Trump’s comments, telling KING 5 News, “If not checked by the media, the American voters, the Congress, the court system, Mr. Trump will proceed to autocratic rule by decree.”
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