October kicked off in good fashion, thanks to the release of Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. While not coming close to The Eras Tour, it still posted a very strong debut. In some bad news, however, A24's The Smashing Machine flopped in its debut, raising questions over The Rock's dramatic prospects.

The Top 10 earned a combined $72.8 million this weekend. That's down 11.4% from last year, when Joker: Folie à Deux massively flopped amidst toxic word of mouth.

Debuting at #1, Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl earned $34 million in 3,702 theaters. That's obviously not close to The Eras Tour ($93 million), but it was foolish to expect it to come close to that. That was a concert film, while this is more of a BTS film featuring song commentaries and a music video. This is just not something that you often see in theaters.

It's a testament to Swift's popularity that this can open this high. Even with the very mixed reactions to the album itself. Unsurprisingly, audiences loved the title: they gave it a rare "A+" on CinemaScore. But this is not a traditional film; this was a one-weekend only event, and so there are no more screenings set up. It's just publicity for the album. And considering the slate of the October titles, it gave theaters a boost in attendance.

Last week's champ One Battle After Another earned $11 million this weekend. That represents a 50%, which isn't great, but at least it's better than Killers of the Flower Moon (59.9%). Through 10 days, the film has amassed $42.6 million, officially becoming Paul Thomas Anderson's highest grossing film. Assuming it can hold well for the rest of October, this should still get close to $70 million by the end of its run.

Debuting in third place, A24's The Smashing Machine flopped with just $5.9 million in 3,345 theaters. That's not even Benny Safdie's biggest debut as director; Uncut Gems opened with $9.5 million on its first wide weekend. But perhaps the most damning stat: it's Dwayne Johnson's worst ever wide debut at the box office, finally dethroning Faster ($8.5 million). It's only above Southland Tales ($123K), but that film never played in more than 63 theaters.

A24 bet high on the film, giving it a steep $50 million budget, one of their most expensive titles. But the film not only had Johnson's worst debut, it wasn't even in the studio's Top 15 debuts. It's only a little above Death of a Unicorn ($5.7 million) and below It Comes at Night ($5.98 million). If we used more sports dramas, that's above The Iron Claw ($4.8 million), but that's apples-to-oranges; that was a December release where it enjoyed holiday legs, which this film won't get.

The film was tracking for $20 million a few weeks ago, so how could it drop all the way to $5.9 million? Simply put, it's multiple things. And none of them have to do with Taylor Swift; they cater to different audiences, so its performance should not have impacted The Smashing Machine.

First of all, sports drama are definitely a popular genre. But that doesn't mean every sport will be popular. The Smashing Machine was following a MMA fighter, but MMA is not really a popular genre at the box office. Here Comes the Boom earned only $45 million domestically, Never Back Down did just $24 million, and Warrior flopped even harder with just $13 million. Clearly, this lacks the popularity of boxing, for example.

Second, the film was sold basically on "Dwayne Johnson can act", which was heavily emphasized ever since its conception. But it looks like audiences just weren't willing in giving him a chance to prove himself. It's a bit similar to Man on the Moon; Jim Carrey was a successful comedy star, but when he tried to do a committed biopic about a niche figure, the audience didn't show up. It simply feels like people only like him in action, comedy and family titles.

Third, the marketing was bizarre. A24 clearly pushed this, so it's not a "non-marketing" excuse. It's more that the marketing just lacked a hook to entice audiences into buying a ticket. While Mark Kerr is a MMA fighter, audiences aren't fully familiar with him, so the "unforgettable story of a UFC legend" tagline doesn't really help. And even then, the marketing sold the film more as a marriage story, while lessening the focus on the fights. So it doesn't matter that "trust me, the guy can act"; if the story and trailers don't look intriguing, audiences won't show up.

And finally, it doesn't really look like the film offered the high quality that comes to be expected from A24. While it earned raves at its debut in Venice one month ago, the film's reception began to dwindle as it got closer to its release. Currently, the film is sitting at a 74% on RT and 65 on Metacritic. Those are solid scores, but that's nowhere close to "critical acclaim". When it lacks that angle, audiences would prefer seeing a real acclaimed title, and One Battle After Another is clearly given the priority.

Johnson has also just commented on the film's performance with an Instagram post, "In our storytelling world, you can’t control box office results — but what I realized you can control is your performance, and your commitment to completely disappear and go elsewhere. And I will always run to that opportunity."

According to A24, 70% of the audience was male, and 64% was in the 18-34 demographic. They gave it a poor "B–" on CinemaScore, which is just terrible for a sports drama. With weak word of mouth and adult drama competition on its way, The Smashing Machine will fall off quickly. It's set to finish with less than $20 million domestically, which will make it Johnson's second worst domestic performance, only ahead of Southland Tales ($275,380). The only buzz left was a possible Best Actor nomination, but that's not really guaranteed now.

In fourth place, Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie earned $5.3 million this weekend. That's down a very steep 61% drop from its opening weekend, which is terrible for a kids title. But it was clear that this was a property that has its own fanbase, and it's just for that fanbase. Through 10 days, the film has earned $21.7 million, and it will finish with just around $35 million.

In fifth place, The Conjuring: Last Rites had the best drop in the Top 10. It eased just 39%, adding $4.1 million and taking its domestic total to $167.8 million.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle continued dropping. This time, it dropped by 50% for $3.5 million. The film's domestic total stands at $124.6 million, and it should finish with $130 million.

Disney re-released Avatar: The Way of Water in 2,140 theaters, in anticipation of the third film this December. But the film mustered just $3.2 million, all boosted by 3D screenings. That took its lifetime gross to $687 million, and it will only play for one week.

In eighth place, The Strangers – Chapter 2 dropped 51% for a $2.8 million weekend. That's not a terrible drop considering its abysmal reception. But with just $10.7 million in 10 days, it still trails the original's opening weekend.

In ninth place, IFC Films and Shudder's Good Boy debuted with $2.3 million in 1,650 theaters. It's not a lot of money, but but it's not far from another film from these two studios, Late Night with the Devil ($2.8 million).

Budget and marketing were very low, so this is a very solid debut for an independent film. After all, there aren't many horror films where the lead character is a dog. Even though it gained buzz as inspired by Courage the Cowardly Dog, the film just isn't that kind of film. It also garnered solid audience reception; a "B" on CinemaScore is quite good for a horror title. It could leg out, but it will have to compete with Black Phone 2 in the next two weeks.

Rounding out the Top 10 was Lionsgate's The Long Walk, which keeps repeating the same holds. It dropped 48%, slightly higher than the 47% on its second and third weekend, adding $1.7 million this week. The film's domestic total stands at $31.9 million. It's set to finish with around $37 million domestically.

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale continues losing steam quickly. This weekend, it collapsed 59% for a $1.3 million weekend. The film has earned $42.2 million domestically, and it only has like $5 million left in the bank in an optimistic scenario.

Him is also being drafted away. It collapsed a steep 64%, earning just $1.3 million. The film has earned a mediocre $23.4 million, and it will finish with around $27 million if it's lucky.

Bleecker Street released Bone Lake in 1,059 theaters, and it flopped with just $830,031.

Universal re-released Casper for its 30th anniversary in 1,100 theaters. But the re-released was deader than the ghosts in the film, earning just $802,365. That took its lifetime gross to $101.6 million.

Focus Features also released Ronan Day-Lewis' Anemone in 865 theaters, with the long-anticipated return of Daniel Day-Lewis in a starring role. But it looks like the film's mediocre reception dampened its potential; it opened with a very poor $681,655 this weekend.

OVERSEAS

One Battle After Another added $21.7 million this weekend, taking its worldwide total to $102 million. It's officially Paul Thomas Anderson's highest grossing film and his first film to hit that milestone. Even though it added new markets, that's a very great hold, indicating strong word of mouth. While there's no individual numbers, it had notable holds in such markets as New Zealand (+7%), Germany (+5%), Chile (+2%), Denmark (+1%), Italy (-4%), Poland (-5%), Holland (-7%), Colombia (-13%), Belgium (-17%), UK (-19%), Mexico (-20%), Australia (-22%), France (-24%), Spain (-25%) and Brazil (-29%). It will reach its final market, China, on October 17.

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl also debuted in 54 markets, earning $16 million for a $50 million worldwide debut. And like that… poof! She's gone.

The Conjuring: Last Rites added $9.3 million overseas, taking its worldwide total to a fantastic $459 million. It's getting closer and closer to the half billion mark.

Avatar: The Way of Water was also re-released outside America, adding $6.8 million. That took its worldwide lifetime to $2.330 billion. This release made it the second highest grossing film of all time in Australia, and also the first film to pass NZ$20 million in New Zealand.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle added $6.7 million, and its worldwide total stands now at $633 million. That officially makes it the sixth biggest film of the year worldwide.

FILMS THAT ENDED THEIR RUN THIS WEEK

Movie Release Date Studio Domestic Opening Domestic Total Worldwide Total Budget Lilo & Stitch May/23 Disney $146,016,175 $423,778,855 $1,037,234,956 $100M F1 Jun/30 Warner Bros. / Apple TV+ $57,001,667 $189,527,111 $627,927,111 $200M Superman Jul/11 Warner Bros. $125,021,735 $354,184,465 $615,784,465 $225M Caught Stealing Aug/29 Sony $7,803,925 $19,005,242 $31,503,564 $40M

The live-action remake of Lilo & Sittch has closed its run with $423 million domestically and $1 billion worldwide. Incredibly impressive, considering this was originally set up at Disney+. A sequel was already in development, and you can take for certain that some executives will say "FIX THE ENDING!" to the writers.

One of the summer's best stories, F1, has closed with a fantastic $189 million domestically and $627 million worldwide. Some really want to use the $300 million figure as its budget to downplay it, but Deadline has already said it cost $200 million. It surpassed all projections to become Brad Pitt's highest grossing film ever, and also managed to outgross every single superhero film this year. Joseph Kosinski, we're looking forward to see what you cooking for Miami Vice in 2027.

The first chapter in DC's new universe, Superman, has closed with $354 million domestically and $615 million worldwide. That domestic figure is pretty strong, showing that DC still has a life after the disaster that was the DCEU. The overseas figure, however, is very soft to say the least. Especially when Man of Steel was stronger outside America. It's definitely a success, but not a huge one, and it shows that there's more work left to be done outside America. But WB is clearly content with this, given they have greenlit Man of Tomorrow for 2027. Now they need to keep the streak alive next year with Supergirl and Clayface.

Sony's Caught Stealing has closed with just $19 million domestically and $31 million worldwide. That's nowhere close to being one of Darren Aronofsky's highest grossing films. It managed to make less than his prior films mother! ($44.5 million) and The Whale ($54 million). Big loss for mid-budget films.

THIS WEEKEND

Disney is releasing Tron: Ares, the third installment in this franchise. Tron has had a very inconsistent performance at the box office; the 1982 title earned $50 million worldwide, but it was considered a disappointment by Disney executives. Then, Legacy was released 28 years later and while it hit $400 million worldwide, this was also below Disney's projections. So 15 years later, they're trying again with Tron. Except that this doesn't really reference Legacy, appears to reduce Jeff Bridges' screentime, moved the action out of the Grid, and now it has Jared Leto as its lead star. A very weird decision, and it's unclear if it will pay off.

Paramount is releasing Derek Cianfrance's Roofman, starring Channing Tatum as Jeffrey Manchester, a former United States Army Reserve non-commissioned officer who to steals from branches of McDonald's after entering their premises via the roof. Reviews out of Toronto are positive, and Tatum has remained popular with the years. Could it surprise?

Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions are also releasing Kiss of the Spider Woman, an adaptation of the stage musical, starring Jennifer Lopez and Diego Luna. The film struggled to pick a distributor after its Sundance debut, where it earned a solid response, but high praise for Lopez's performance. While she has had box office hits, it'd be a surprise if Kiss of the Spider Woman broke out.

And in limited release, there's Amazon MGM's After the Hunt, the new film from Luca Guadagnino. Starring Julia Roberts, Ayo Edebiri, Andrew Garfield, Michael Stuhlbarg and Chloë Sevigny, it follows a college professor caught in between a sexual abuse accusation involving one of her students and a colleague. Guadagnino has had critical hits, and pairing him with a big name like Roberts should translate to some interest. But the film's biggest setback could be its reviews; it's sitting at a mediocre 51% on RT, the worst in Guadagnino's career. This is not ideal, considering adult dramas need acclaim to stand a chance at the box office.

If you're interested in following the box office, come join us in r/BoxOffice.