Like a magic spell from Glinda the Witch herself, the box office is finally bound for a rebound after an awful autumn with the arrival of Universal’s Wicked: For Good.
The second half of the feature take of the Broadway musical from Winnie Holzman and music/lyricist Stephen Schwartz is coming in hot, already Fandango’s biggest PG-rated advance ticket seller stateside, and the best pre-seller year to date.
Sources tell us that global is around $200M+ with plenty of room for upside with over $70 million coming from 78 offshore markets and anywhere from $125M-$150M+ at 4,000 U.S./Canada theaters. The first Wicked with a $112.5M domestic/ $164M worldwide opening broke records as the best start ever for a movie based on a Broadway musical, and Wicked: For Good will break that record again.
Note, on the domestic side, exhibition and rival distributors have crazy projections north of $175M million, but what’s hard to read on this heavy female leaning property are the enormous presales. Last year at the domestic box office, on Wicked‘s opening day, it was figured that the picture would bow to $120M at the domestic B.O. That eased to $112.5M by Monday and that’s because business was frontloaded. Note, people continued to flock to Wicked over Thanksgiving, which combined with Moana 2, drove a record Thanksgiving box office week of $420M. Wicked‘s $164M+ global debut also repped a record for a Broadway IP movie.
An ‘A’ CinemaScore legged Wicked out to 4.2x multiple at the domestic box office with $474.4M. International final was $284.2M (par for the course for a Broadway musical) for a grand global take of $758.7M with ten Oscar nominations including Best Picture, and two wins for Production Design and Costumes.
Wicked: For Good currently stands at 74% fresh with critics and a great audience score of 97% (there were Amazon sneaks); compare this to Wicked‘s 88% critics score and 95% audience score last year. There are large format fan previews on Wednesday at 6PM followed by Thursday previews at 2PM stateside. The Amazon sneaks and Wednesday grosses will be rolled into Thursday. Wicked minted $19.2M in total U.S./Canada previews a year ago. Wicked: For Good will have Imax and premium large format screens and will share those auditoriums with Disney’s Zootopia 2 when that animated title opens Wednesday over the Thanksgiving 5-day stretch.
The Wicked: For Good posse of Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Michelle Yeoh, Jeff Goldblum, Jonathan Bailey, etc and filmmaker Jon M. Chu have been a global tour which kicked off Nov. 4 in Sao Paolo, Brazil, followed by Paris (Nov. 7), London (Nov. 10), Singapore (Nov. 13) and NYC last night.
The Chu-directed movie is opening in more territories this time around than a year ago, which counted 61 and yielded an offshore start in like-for-likes, adjusted for inflation of $60.1M. Not included in this suite for Wicked: For Good is Japan (which is opening on March 6) and China. Wicked: For Good is cleared to play in the latter, but is still awaiting a date (Wicked only grossed $2M there a year ago). The top final offshore markets for Wicked were UK, Australia, Japan, Germany, and South Korea. Korea, Belgium, Phillipines and France are opening tomorrow.
A year ago at the domestic box office, there was Paramount with its guy-skewing, R-rated Gladiator II which debuted to $55M and with Wicked help drive an overall $202.4M weekend. There is hope that sans a Gladiator II type movie this time around that Wicked: For Good will make up the difference. That remains to be seen.
Mari Yamamoto and Brendan Fraser in ‘Rental Family‘
James Lisle/Searchlight Pictures
Also opening as older adult counterprogramming is Searchlight’s Rental Family in 1,925 theaters starring Oscar winner Brendan Fraser as an actor in Tokyo who is hired as a stand-in family member and companion for strangers. The Hikari-directed movie made its debut at the Tokyo International Film Festival and TIFF back in the fall and has 94% fresh with RT critics.
Sony Screen Gems has the Finnish WWII action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge in 2,100 locations. Both are expected to do in the single digits. Sisu 2 stands at 96% fresh with critics. The first movie from filmmaker Jalmari Helander followed an ex-soldier who discovers gold in the Lapland wilderness and tries to take the loot into the city as German soldiers led by a brutal SS officer battle him. The movie, produced by Sony Worldwide Acquisitions and Stage 6 Films, was released by Lionsgate in 1,006 theaters opening to $3.3M and finaling at $7.2M domestic. Helander returns to write and direct part two which centers around a man who returns to dismantle his family’s house, where they were murdered in war, to rebuild it elsewhere. When the killer, a Red Army commander, tracks him down, a brutal cross-country pursuit begins. Previews in North America start at 4PM in 1,900 sites on Thursday.
Lionsgate’s No. 1 movie from last weekend, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t hopes to have a second weekend ease in the 50% range ($9M-$10M), still withstanding the crush from Wicked 2. Paramount’s second frame of Edgar Wright’s The Running Man will be harder, some believing it’s around -70% (or $5M).
