The next Lord of the Rings movie must restore the franchise’s box office streak, but there’s a major challenge standing in its way. Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings films are regarded as some of the most successful fantasy adaptations of all time — not just because of their success at the box office, but due to their thorough unpacking of J.R.R. Tolkien’s source material. The Hobbit films have gotten less praise, but all three of them made between $900 million and $1 billion while in theaters. It wasn’t until the 2024 release of The War of the Rohirrim that the franchise’s box office streak broke.
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim was always fighting an uphill battle, as it’s often harder to sell audiences on animation than live-action projects. Even accounting for that challenge, the film was a huge disappointment, bringing in under $10 million domestically and just $20 million globally (via The Numbers). This was a record low for the Lord of the Rings franchise, raising concerns about Warner Bros.’ plans to expand the IP. This places further pressure on the next movie, 2027’s The Hunt for Gollum, to turn things around. To restore the franchise to its former glory, The Hunt for Gollum must overcome a significant challenge, addressing a problem that started all the way back in 2014.
The Lord of the Rings Franchise’s Problems Started Before The War of the Rohirrim
The War of the Rohirrim may have killed The Lord of the Rings’ box office streak, but it’s not the first disappointment Tolkien fans have faced. The franchise’s problems started more than a decade ago, when The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies debuted, and they’ve gotten progressively worse since. Although The Battle of the Five Armies was a success by box office standards — per Box Office Mojo, it brought in $956 million globally — it was panned by critics. And The Hobbit films, in general, weren’t greeted with much praise. Although they made money and benefited from a great cast, they also made dubious decisions, like splitting a single book into three parts. The trilogy’s missteps left a bad taste in fans’ mouths, and the final chapter proved a turning point for the franchise.
From there, two other Lord of the Rings projects came out, and they both left fans feeling dissatisfied. Prime Video’s The Rings of Power has divided the fan base, with many lambasting its approach to Tolkien’s Second Age. And The War of the Rohirrim was a low point for the IP, repeating many of the problems viewers had with The Hobbit trilogy and The Rings of Power, from poor pacing to taking to many liberties with the source material. The animated film’s box office numbers drew more attention to its failures, but The Hunt for Gollum must account for all the recent LOTR projects if it hopes to succeed.
The Hunt for Gollum Must Win Fans Back to the Franchise After Previous Disappointments
The Hunt for Gollum has the chance to reinvigorate The Lord of the Rings IP, but it must overcome a challenge created by past disappointments. Understandably, Tolkien fans are growing weary when it comes to new additions to the franchise, as nothing has lived up to the original films. The fact that the 2027 movie will return viewers to the timeline of the trilogy — complete with returning characters — offers reason for hope. However, it may not be enough to counter the negative outlook created by other recent releases, especially when the film is set to premiere on the same day as Avengers: Secret Wars.
The next Lord of the Rings film will need to offer something truly compelling to reach previous box office numbers again. And if it succeeds, will also need to regain fans’ trust if the franchise hopes to keep that momentum going. Andy Serkis returning to direct and play the title character is a promising sign, as is Peter Jackson’s involvement. However, even with these things going for it, The Hunt for Gollum may struggle to get audiences to theaters. It will need to be very careful if it wants to appease the fans who do show up, as many of them have been let down too many times already.
How the Next Lord of the Rings Movie Can Regain Viewers’ Trust
When it comes to winning fans over, The Hunt for Gollum can look to projects like The Rings of Power and The War of the Rohirrim for lessons. Among the most obvious is that it shouldn’t take too many big swings with the source material. This is difficult, as the events of the film are only briefly covered in Tolkien’s writings. That leaves a lot up to interpretation, and The Hunt for Gollum will need to expand on the author’s words to deliver a fully fleshed-out narrative. But where possible, the movie should avoid choices that feel misaligned with the tone and themes of the source material.
Additionally, the 2027 film shouldn’t lean too heavily on nostalgia, nor should it try to reinvent the wheel. Relying too much on the success of past films and cameos would be naive, as it will take more to get disenchanted fans reinvested in this story. That said, the film does need to maintain consistency with the original trilogy, using the same stars and adhering to the timeline of Frodo’s journey. If it’s too different from the first three films, it will be jarring and hard to enjoy, especially for those primarily interested in the adaptations. Needless to say, the stakes are high, as The Hunt for Gollum could dictate the future of The Lord of the Rings IP. Hopefully, it makes a convincing case for more stories set in Middle-earth — and enough money to get studio executives on board.
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