November Election Hangs Over Employer Hiring Practices

by Daniel Johnson

September 9, 2024

Part of the reason for the trepidation of employers hinges on which presidential candidate will win the election in November.

Even though employers are eager to hire more workers, concerns about a potential recession and possible layoffs are causing them to pause their hiring plans.

According to CNN, August’s unemployment numbers went down to 4.2%, and in July, the number of job openings was at the lowest level since 2021. Part of the reason for the trepidation of employers hinges on which presidential candidate will win the election in November as former president Donald J. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have wildly different approaches to the economy. 

As it relates to Black workers, unemployment dipped to 6.1%, down slightly from July’s 6.3% rate. According to CNBC, Black men’s unemployment rates dropped sharply from 6.6% in July to 5.9% while Black women’s numbers remained static at 5.5%

According to Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, the employment to population ratio, particularly for women workers, shows that the labor market is in a good place, despite the hiring freeze. 

“The employment-to-population ratio for women’s prime-age workers remains at a quarter-century high,” Gould told CNBC. “This remains very strong, even if there is still a little bit of softening in other measures. It makes sense we’ll see some weakness now that we’re approaching full employment.

As it relates to the election, Trump has essentially promised to be an economic isolationist, and has floated the idea of proposing a 60% tariff increase on imports from China as well as a 10% tariff on goods imported from other countries. 

According to Vox, Trump’s economic plans would be a disaster for the recovery of the American economy from inflation and would likely make things much worse for the average consumer than they are experiencing currently. In his crusade against imports, Trump’s reported desire to lower the strength of the dollar will have the effect of making prices more expensive for everyday Americans. 

As Eric Levitz warns in his conclusion, “Unfortunately, Trump’s proposals and their economic consequences appear to be largely lost on the American electorate, possibly because neither have attracted much media attention. If that does not change between now and November, the country could pay a heavy price.”

Vice President Harris’ plans for the economy, by contrast, have been praised by Goldman Sachs in a note they released to Reuters on Sept. 3. Like Levitz, Goldman Sachs believes a Trump win or a Republican-controlled Legislative branch would be a disaster for the economy. 

A campaign spokesperson for Vice President Harris released a statement to Salon following the release of the note, emphasizing the importance of a Harris win for Americans. 

“Vice President Harris has a positive vision to strengthen the economy by building up the middle class, cutting taxes and lowering costs for working families and small businesses, and creating opportunities for all Americans to get ahead,” a spokesperson said in a statement. “On the economy, the choice could not be any more clear this November.”

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