Summary
A Haunting in Venice’s worldwide opening weekend has grossed an underwhelming $37 million; the numbers are discouraging, but the film shouldn’t be written off as a bomb just yet. The work of Agatha Christie’s Belgian Detective Hercule Poirot has been adapted for screen numerous times. However, director and star Kenneth Branagh has brought unprecedented budgets and star power to the stories. Branagh’s first outing, 2017’s Murder on The Orient Express, proved an unexpected success. The next attempt, 2022’s Death on The Nile, proved less incendiary at the box office but made enough of an impact for 20th Century Studios to offer Branagh the reins to a third Poirot.
A Haunting in Venice is something of an outlier in Branagh’s Poirot tenure. The film, which sees the mustachioed detective forced into action when a Venetian séance turns deadly, strives for a darker atmosphere and tone. It’s also a less recognizable title than its predecessors; not only does the movie change the name of its original book, Hallowe’en Party, but it’s also the first of Kenneth Branagh’s Hercule Poirot movies not to have a cinematic precursor. As a less recognizable title, and as a follow-up to a box office disappointment, A Haunting in Venice constitutes a financial risk. As things stand, the risk may not pay off for the studio.
How A Haunting In Venice’s Box Office Compares To Kenneth Branagh’s Other Hercule Poirot Movies
A Haunting in Venice’s $14.5 million domestic opening weekend exceeds its $12 million projections and surpasses the opening of one of its predecessors. However, the circumstances of the different releases complicate the question of the film’s comparative success. The first of Branagh’s Poirot films, Murder on The Orient Express, fared extremely well at the box office. Against a $55 million budget, the film took home $28.7 million in its opening weekend, and over $350 million in total as of now. A Haunting in Venice has managed an opening of less than half of the original film.
Death on The Nile is still the lowest first weekend box office of Branagh’s Poirot franchise. The film opened at only $12.9 million domestically on a much larger budget of $90 million. However, the disappointment has some caveats. A victim of the COVID-19 pandemic, the film was pushed back numerous times from its slated release date of October 2020 and saw box office disappointment in line with many films released in the early days of theaters’ return. The movie was given an early release on streaming, where it registered as the most-watched film across all platforms on the week of its release.
A Haunting In Venice’s Box Office Isn’t A Bomb Yet – But It Still Needs A Lot
Since A Haunting in Venice is still new to theaters, it is too early to label the film as a bomb. However, the odds are against the film. While the listed budget is $60 million, a rule of thumb for major releases is that a film needs to earn at least twice its production budget to account for marketing and publicity costs, so the real number is likely around $120 million. Generally, cinematic releases make around a third of their box office in the opening weekend, since audience numbers drop off a week to week, and movie theaters get bigger percentages of a movie’s earnings the longer it plays.
A 50% drop-off in audience retention is widely considered a respectable number for a major release. If A Haunting in Venice’s second weekend sees it take home 50% of its $37 million worldwide opening weekend, the film will still not have made enough to cover its production and marketing costs. The film would need to fare extraordinarily well in its long-term theatrical run in order to recoup its budget. Such an occurrence is rare, but not unheard of. Only this summer, Pixar’s Elemental made an impressive comeback from opening weekend disappointment to prove a major box office success.
Why There’s Hope For A Haunting In Venice’s Box Office
A Haunting in Venice’s opening weekend numbers are disappointing, but there are reasons to hope for the film’s box office redemption. Death on The Nile fared worse than A Haunting in Venice on its opening weekend, and even had to contend with the after-effects of the pandemic; moreover, a Death on The Nile cast member, Armie Hammer, became the subject of controversy after troubling allegations. Yet the film went on to make $137 million at the box office. Its bloated $90 million budget meant the movie still came out at a loss, but with A Haunting in Venice’s leaner $60 million budget, a similar take-home would constitute a profit.
One of the biggest factors in helping a film overcome middling opening weekend numbers is strong word-of-mouth. If a film builds up a positive reputation, it can see a gradual surge in numbers as more and more people are encouraged to go and see it. If any Poirot film has the potential to do strong word-of-mouth, it is A Haunting in Venice. The Rotten Tomatoes numbers, a 79% score, point to the film being the best Kenneth Branagh Poirot movie yet. The success of the Knives Out films proves that there is a consistent audience for smart, well-crafted murder mystery films. If Branagh’s Poirot is finally ready to deliver, a groundswell may follow.
Will A Haunting In Venice Ultimately Be A Box Office Bomb?
The hard facts of A Haunting in Venice’s case are not encouraging. The film’s opening weekend barely outpaced the numbers of its COVID-era predecessor and fared dramatically worse than the original 2017 film. The movie would need to pull off a wildly impressive feat of audience retention in order to turn a profit. However, the film’s franchise-high critical response may engender such a turn. It seems a mistake not to release the horror-coded film closer to Halloween, but A Haunting in Venice may see a bump as its theatrical run stretches into October.
A Haunting in Venice’s weekend-to-weekend hold depends on what competition it faces in the coming weeks. No major studio tentpoles are due to release, but the marketplace is crowded enough that A Haunting in Venice will struggle to hold onto a top place. Next weekend, the film will have to contend with Dumb Money, Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie, and Expendables 4 (a logjam partially attributed to the impending release of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour). The next weekend will see the release of The Creator and Saw X, two highly anticipated titles. Unfortunately for A Haunting in Venice, the competition may be too steep.
