A Minecraft Movie‘s record-breaking debut aside, the 2025 box office has arguably been underwhelming so far. Fortunately for theaters, the typically busy summer movie season is right around the corner with the arrival of Marvel’s Thunderbolts* in early May. However, the film may not get off to as strong a start as some hoped. According to The Hollywood Reporter, Thunderbolts* is projected to gross somewhere between $63-77 million domestically over its opening weekend. The outlet notes that right now, $70 million is the “target number,” which would be a fairly soft debut for an MCU installment.
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If these projections hold, Thunderbolts* would earn less than February’s Captain America: Brave New World in its opening. Brave New World grossed $88.8 million in its first three days, and $100 million over the extended Presidents’ Day frame. That “target number” of $70 million is also below a trio of Marvel releases that premiered in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic: Black Widow ($80.3 million), Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75.3 million), and Eternals ($71.2 million).
Thunderbolts*, the final film of the MCU’s Phase Five, hits theaters on May 2nd. Following the unveiling of the Avengers: Doomsday cast in late March, the movie took on a greater sense of importance within the overarching narrative of the Multiverse Saga. Several of the Thunderbolts* stars are set to reprise their roles in Doomsday, making Thunderbolts* required viewing for Marvel fans.
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With under a month to go until the movie’s release, Marvel is in the homestretch of Thunderbolts* marketing; tickets for the blockbuster went on sale earlier this week. There have also been claims that a test screening was very well-received, indicating Thunderbolts* could be a hit akin to Guardians of the Galaxy.
The prospect of another Marvel movie struggling at the box office fresh on the heels of Brave New World‘s own disappointing run might raise some alarm bells. However, it’s important to keep in mind that these are just projections. A Minecraft Movie was estimated to earn around $65 million in the days leading up to its premiere and blew that figure out of the water with a $162.7 million domestic debut. With a few weeks to go before Thunderbolts* arrives, there’s still a chance the film will exceed these initial expectations. Especially if word of mouth is strong, Thunderbolts* could end up being a massive success. Viewers seem to have responded positively to Thunderbolts* promotional materials that paint the film as a fresh and exciting addition to the MCU.
Thunderbolts* should also benefit from lack of competition. After it opens on May 2nd, it will be the highest-profile title on the marketplace for a couple of weeks, meaning it will have a bit of a runway to have a healthy box office run. However, late May sees the arrivals of heavy hitters like Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning and Lilo & Stitch, so it’ll be vital for Thunderbolts* to come out of the gates strong. Marvel has a lot riding on this film as it builds to the conclusion of the Multiverse Saga, so hopefully audiences come out in full force to support it.
