It's been some rough months, but there's finally a megablockbuster in theaters.
Unsurprisingly, Wicked: For Good destroyed a lot of box office records this weekend, including the biggest Broadway adaptation debut. The arrival of such a blockbuster meant everything else was reduced to atoms; nearly all the holdovers in the Top 10 dropped less than 50% this weekend. There was also the arrival of two smaller films, Rental Family and Sisu: Road to Revenge, none of which posted anything impressive.
The Top 10 earned a combined $181.5 million this weekend. That's down 9.1% from last year, when Wicked topped the box office. Even though For Good opened higher, the weekend lacked a strong second place like Gladiator II ($55 million) to make up the difference.
Debuting at #1, Wicked: For Good opened with a fantastic $147 million in 4,115 theaters. Not only higher than Wicked ($112 million), but it broke so many records. That includes the biggest debut for a Broadway adaptation, the third biggest debut in November (behind The Hunger Games: Catching Fire with $158 million and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever with $182 million) and the second biggest debut of the year (behind A Minecraft Movie with $162 million).
It doesn't take a genius to see how it opened this high. Last year's Wicked had an incredible run, closing with $474 million domestically and $758 million worldwide, on top of scoring some big awards. Universal mounted an extensive marketing campaign, which included early access screenings in the days prior to its debut. Not to mention the amount of press junkets and interviews that have been going viral over the past weeks.
While there was the belief that splitting the musical into two films was a risky choice, it definitely paid off. There were concerns that For Good could have some challenges, specifically the idea that the second half of the musical is weaker than the first. But Universal knew how to sell the film, specially highlighting how it would connect with The Wizard of Oz. Even if reviews weren't as favorable as last year (a 70% on RT and 58 on Metacritc).
According to Universal, 70% of the audience was female, and 61% was in the 18-34 demographic. Despite the PG rating, only 34% was 25 and under, so clearly it didn't really attract families. Even with the reviews, audiences gave For Good a great "A" on CinemaScore, same grade as its predecessor. Wicked had great legs, achieving a 4.22x multiplier. Given its high debut, it's unreasonable to expect For Good to replicate those legs. But at the very least, it should absolutely cross $500 million domestically. Easily Universal's highest grossing film of the year.
In second place, Now You See Me: Now You Don't added $8.9 million. That's a rough 57% drop, only slightly ahead of the second film's 58% drop. While it slightly over-performed projections last week, seems like the fans rushed out, and there wasn't much interest from general audiences. Through 10 days, the film has made $36.6 million, and it's now guaranteed to miss $60 million domestically.
After its brutal drop last week, Predator: Badlands had the distinction of being the holdover in the Top 10 with the best drop. It dropped 49%, which translated to a $6.5 million weekend. The film has earned $76.5 million, and it will finish with around $90 million domestically.
The Running Man isn't really running as much as it's collapsing. The film dropped a brutal 65% on its second weekend, earning only $5.7 million. That's Edgar Wright's worst second weekend drop, steeper than Last Night in Soho's 56.9% drop, and the worst drop in the Top 10. Through 10 days, the film has earned a poor $26.9 million. With more competition on its way, the film is now destined to finish with less than the unadjusted domestic total of the 1987 film ($37 million).
In fifth place, Searchlight's Rental Family debuted with $3.3 million in 1,925 theaters. This debut is higher than the wide debut of Brendan Fraser's latest lead role, The Whale ($1 million), although that was playing in 603 theaters.
This is an okay, albeit unremarkable debut. Even though he won an Oscar for The Whale, the film didn't make a lot of money domestically, tapping out at $17 million. And Rental Family didn't have much of a hook; an actor working for a rental family agency isn't exactly an attracting concept for moviegoers. And even with positive reviews (87% on RT), it seems Searchlight changed its plans to position it as its Oscar buzz title after it failed to score anything in TIFF.
According to Searchlight, 53% of the audience was female, and 34% was 45 and over. In some great news, they gave it a pretty great "A" on CinemaScore, indicating strong word of mouth. It should hold well over the Thanksgiving weekend, but it seems like the film might tap out at $15 million domestically, especially if there's no Oscar buzz to boost it. Regardless, it's not all doom and gloom; The Whale made 68% of its money outside America, so perhaps Rental Family could perform better overseas.
In sixth place, Sisu: Road to Revenge earned a lukewarm $2.4 million in 2,222 theaters. That's less than the first Sisu ($3.3 million), and that film was playing in just 1,006 theaters.
Given its $12 million budget, this is an underwhelming debut. Even though the trailers offered pretty much the same things people loved about the original (brutal WWII action), it seems like audiences were fine with checking it just once. At the end of the day, it's a niche property.
According to Sony, a gigantic 81% of the audience was male, and 42% was 45 and over. They gave it a middling "B" on CinemaScore, which doesn't indicate good word of mouth. With heavy competition, the film will probably follow the original's short legs. Right now, it'd be a surprise if it made it past $6 million.
Regretting You dropped 57%, adding $1.5 million. The film has earned $47.3 million, and should cross $50 million soon.
Nuremberg dropped 51%, earning $1.2 million this weekend. That takes its domestic total to $10.9 million.
Black Phone 2 added $1 million, a rough 60% drop. It has amassed $76.4 million to date.
Rounding out the Top 10 was Sarah's Oil, which collapsed 64% for just $801,269. The film's domestic total stands at $10.3 million.
With horrible word of mouth, Neon's Keeper vanished from the Top 10. It collapsed a brutal 75%, earning just $628,801. The film has made a very weak $3.9 million, and will officially close with less than $5 million domestically. Basically just half of what Longlegs did on its first day.
Neon's Sentimental Value was expanded to 151 theaters, managing to score $616,782. The film has amassed $1.4 million, and it will continue expanding.
OVERSEAS
Wicked: For Good debuted with a pretty great $76.1 million overseas, for a dazzling $223.1 million worldwide debut. The biggest ever debut for a Broadway adaptation. The biggest debuts were in the UK ($24.4M), Australia ($8.6M), Germany ($4.1M), South Korea ($3.8M) and Mexico ($3.7M). The debut was higher than the original Wicked, although this one opened in far more markets. Judging from its performance, it should crack $800 million, but $1 billion doesn't seem likely unless it massively over-performs in Japan, its final market.
Now You See Me: Now You Don't added $32.6 million overseas, taking its worldwide total to $146 million.
Predator: Badlands added $7.2 million overseas, for a $160.2 million worldwide total. It's just a few dollars away froom becoming the highest grossing mainline Predator film, passing The Predator ($160.5 million). The best markets are China ($14.5M), the UK ($6.6M), Mexico ($5.2M), France ($4.4M) and Japan ($4M).
The Running Man added $7.1 million overseas, for a weak $48.2 million worldwide total. While it still has major markets like China, South Korea and Japan left, it'll be nowhere close to breaking even.
FILMS THAT ENDED THEIR RUN THIS WEEK
Movie Release Date Studio Domestic Opening Domestic Total Worldwide Total Budget Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie Sep/26 Universal $13,697,595 $32,011,820 $79,341,103 $32M Roofman Oct/10 Paramount $8,108,861 $22,739,882 $32,628,143 $18M Good Fortune Oct/17 Lionsgate $6,163,433 $16,585,758 $25,618,837 $30M Shelby Oaks Oct/24 Neon $2,346,918 $4,500,052 $5,683,151 $1.4M
DreamWorks' Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie has closed with $32 million domestically and $79 million worldwide. Not really a hit, but not a failure. After all, the film is more like advertising for the toys, where the real money is. DreamWorks and Universal are now going to try it again with Cocomelon in 2027. God save us all.
Paramount's Roofman has closed with just $22 million domestically and $32 million worldwide. Even with a name like Channing Tatum attached and a crazy real life story, audiences didn't get much of an excuse to watch this. It's not even director Derek Cianfrance's highest grossing film; it finished below The Place Beyond the Pines ($47 million).
Comedies are back? Yeah, doesn't seem like it. Lionsgate's Good Fortune has closed with an underwhelming $16 million domestically and $25 million worldwide, failing to recoup its $30 million investment. Even with some names like Keanu Reeves, Seth Rogen and Aziz Ansari attached, the audience wasn't particularly hyped for this.
The audience wasn't ready to get Stuckmannized in theaters. Neon's Shelby Oaks has closed with $4.5 million domestically and $5.6 million worldwide. Given its low budget, it's certainly profitable, despite its terrible legs. Sold pretty much entirely as Chris Stuckmann's directorial debut, the film had many positive screenings in festivals, but reception dwindled as it got closer to release. He finally got his wish in making a film, but it's now up to him if he really wants to continue. And if he wants to continue, he'll have to re-think on what works and what doesn't.
THIS WEEKEND
It's Thanksgiving, and it will be a very lucrative weekend.
The biggest film is obviously Zootopia 2, the sequel to the 2016 film. The cast is back, and it revolves around Judy Hopps and Nick Wilde, who go undercover to pursue Zootopia's new and mysterious reptilian resident Gary De'Snake. Moana 2 opened last year and crossed the $1 billion milestone despite mediocre reception. It's not unreasonable to expect this film to outgross this. Where did this confidence come from? The fact that it's heading for a colossal $200+ million debut in China. It's heading on to become the biggest Hollywood title in the market since the pandemic started. The question isn't if it will cross $1 billion, but how high it can go.
A24 is releasing Eternity, starring Miles Teller, Elizabeth Olsen, and Callum Turner, which follows a woman who must choose between two men with whom to spend eternity in the afterlife. The film has already premiered and has earned some great reviews so far (84% on RT), and the lack of romantic options could help it. A potential sleeper hit?
Focus Features is also releasing Chloé Zhao's Hamnet, starring Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal, in limited release, ahead of a wide expansion on December 12. The film has earned incredible reviews since its festival debut, winning the People's Choice Award at TIFF, a big precursor for Oscars. Look for this to get one of the year's biggest per-theater averages.
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