A NOTE FROM SCOTT Since our last check-in, just about every current Oscar hopeful descended on Hollywood for the Academy’s Governors Awards on Nov. 16. They ostensibly were there to celebrate honorees Tom Cruise, Dolly Parton, Wynn Thomas and Debbie Allen, but let’s be honest: Leonardo DiCaprio (Warners’ One Battle After Another), Jennifer Lawrence (Mubi’s Die My Love), Adam Sandler (Netflix’s Jay Kelly) and Ariana Grande (Universal’s Wicked: For Good) don’t show up to the ceremony every year. They — and literally hundreds of others with varying awards prospects — were on the red carpet and in the ballroom because they’re great places to see and be seen by Oscar voters.
So, too, was the American Cinematheque Award ceremony on Nov. 20, where Michael B. Jordan, star of Warners’ Sinners, was honored, and those toasting him included Sinners writer/director Ryan Coogler and actors Miles Caton and Delroy Lindo; Bradley Cooper, writer/director/star of Searchlight’s Is This Thing On?; and Tessa Thompson, star/producer of Amazon/MGM’s Hedda. It was but one of numerous Sinners-related events in recent days. Among others, Coogler received the “key” to Warner Bros. at the Somerville restaurant in the Windsor Hills part of LA — which was transformed into the Juke Joint, the Southern blues hall in the movie — on Nov. 21, with the rest of his principal collaborators in attendance. And on Nov. 22, they all turned up at a brunch at the Four Seasons in Beverly Hills.
Warners’ other major horse in the race, One Battle After Another, may be the frontrunner according to most prognosticators, including yours truly, and indeed it got another nod of approval last week from the retiree demographic with a field-leading eight AARP Award nominations. But Sinners, which cost a lot less ($90 million vs. $140 million, pre-marketing) and has grossed a lot more ($368 million vs. $202 million worldwide), clearly won’t be conceding the pole position without a fight. Another sign of its strength: it landed a field-leading 13 mentions across the Critics Choice Association’s 11 shortlists for below-the-line Critics Choice Award nominations, including at least one in every category. (Full disclosure: I served on the committee that determined those shortlists.)
A24’s Marty Supreme, in addition to having an orange blimp with its name on it flying all around LA, has finally begun to screen more heavily for the industry, and is going over like gangbusters. On Nov. 13, it played at the DGA, after which Bill Simmons moderated a Q&A. The following night, despite pouring rain, it filled the 952-seat David Geffen Theatre at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures — attendees included Jennifer Lawrence, Mikey Madison, Cara Delevingne, Shawn Mendes and Chase Sui Wonders — after which I did a Q&A with writer/director/editor Josh Safdie, writer/editor Ronald Bronstein and stars Timothée Chalamet, Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’zion, among others.
On Nov. 21, the Academy announced the longlists — meaning, the lists of all titles that have qualified for consideration — for its best animated feature, best documentary feature and best international feature categories, which numbered 35, 201 and 86, respectively.
Speaking of the doc feature race, that came into clearer focus last week with Netflix’s Apocalypse in the Tropics garnering a field-leading four noms for the International Documentary Association’s IDA Awards (just as one of its subjects, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, was arrested for attempting to escape a prison sentence). Another Netflix doc, The Perfect Neighbor, was shortlisted for the best film editing Critic Choice Award, while no other doc landed a spot on any of the organization’s 11 BTL shortlistsn. And the SCAD Savannah Film Festival released this year’s full Docs to Watch Panel, which was moderated by yours truly and featured the directors of 10 top docs — including the aforementioned two — in conversation about their films. Don’t miss it!
As for the general public? Last weekend, they turned out in mass for the theatrical opening weekend of Wicked: For Good, to the tune of $147 million in the U.S. and $223 million globally, marking the biggest debut ever for a Broadway adaptation and the third-best for any musical. (Critics, it must be noted, were less enthusiastic: it’s now at 70 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.) In terms of streaming, Frankenstein was again the people’s choice on Netflix, watched more than any other English-language film, while newcomer Train Dreams, on the back of rave reviews (it’s at 95 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), broke into the top 10.
Finally, the Camerimage festival in Poland, which celebrates cinematography, awarded its top prize, the Golden Frog, to Judith Kaufmann for her work on Music Box’s Late Shift, the Swiss entry for the best international feature competition, and its second-place prize, the Silver Frog, to Fabian Gamper for his work on Mubi’s Sound of Falling, the German entry. Will they be able to challenge, for Oscar nominations, the category’s presumptive frontrunners, including Focus’ Hamnet, One Battle After Another and Frankenstein? Time will tell.
Have a happy Thanksgiving!
PLEASE REMEMBER: Scott’s forecasts do not necessarily reflect his personal preferences. His aim is not to advocate for what he thinks the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. He arrives at his projections by screening many films, analyzing their campaigns, speaking with voters and studying relevant history and stats.
Best Picture
Frontrunners1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)2. Hamnet (Focus)3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)4. Marty Supreme (A24)5. Sentimental Value (Neon)6. Frankenstein (Netflix)7. Jay Kelly (Netflix)8. Train Dreams (Netflix)9. Wicked: For Good (Universal)10. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
Major Threats11. It Was Just An Accident (Neon)12. A House of Dynamite (Netflix)13. Bugonia (Focus)14. Rental Family (Searchlight)15. No Other Choice (Neon)
Possibilities16. The Secret Agent (Neon)17. Nuremberg (Sony Classics)18. Weapons (Warner Bros.)19. Hedda (Amazon/MGM)20. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)
Long Shots21. Roofman (Paramount)22. Dead Man’s Wire (Row K)23. The Smashing Machine (A24)24. Song Sung Blue (Focus)25. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)
Still to See/Under EmbargoAvatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
Best Director
Frontrunners1. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)2. Ryan Coogler for Sinners (Warner Bros.)3. Chloé Zhao for Hamnet (Focus)4. Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)5. Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2
Major Threats6. Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident (Neon)7. Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24)8. Park Chan-wook for No Other Choice (Neon)9. Kathryn Bigelow for A House of Dynamite (Netflix)10. Noah Baumbach for Jay Kelly (Netflix)11. Richard Linklater for Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — podcast
Possibilities12. Yorgos Lanthimos for Bugonia (Focus)13. Clint Bentley for Train Dreams (Netflix)14. Jon M. Chu for Wicked: For Good (Universal)15. Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent (Neon)16. Joseph Kosinski for F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
Long Shots17. Gus Van Sant for Dead Man’s Wire (Row K)18. Zach Cregger for Weapons (Warner Bros.)19. Nia DaCosta for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)20. Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine (A24)21. Scott Cooper for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)
Still to See/Under EmbargoJames Cameron for Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
Best Actor
Frontrunners1. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)2. Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme (A24) — podcast3. Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent (Neon)4. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast5. George Clooney for Jay Kelly (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2
Major Threats6. Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine (A24) — podcast7. Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams (Netflix) — podcast8. Jesse Plemons for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast9. Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)10. Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — podcast11. Brendan Fraser for Rental Family (Searchlight) — podcast
Possibilities12. Oscar Isaac for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast13. Channing Tatum for Roofman (Paramount) — podcast14. Will Arnett for Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)15. Bill Skarsgård for Dead Man’s Wire (Row K)16. Daniel Day-Lewis for Anemone (Focus)
Long Shots17. Brad Pitt for F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)18. Toni Servillo for La Grazia (Mubi)19. Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice (Neon)20. Russell Crowe for Nuremberg (Sony Classics)21. Hugh Jackman for Song Sung Blue (Focus) — podcast
Best Actress
Frontrunners1. Jessie Buckley for Hamnet (Focus)2. Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value (Neon)3. Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)4. Emma Stone for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast5. Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good (Universal) — podcast
Major Threats6. Sydney Sweeney for Christy (Black Bear) — podcast7. Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)8. Jennifer Lawrence for Die My Love (Mubi) — podcast9. Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue (Focus) — podcast10. Tessa Thompson for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
Possibilities11. Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — podcast 1 and 212. Julia Roberts for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM) — podcast13. Lucy Liu for Rosemead (Vertical) — podcast14. Claire Foy for H Is for Hawk (Roadside) — podcast
Long Shots15. Laura Dern for Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)16. June Squibb for Eleanor the Great (Sony Classics)17. Eva Victor for Sorry, Baby (A24)18. Jodie Foster for A Private Life (Sony Classics) — podcast
Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners1. Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value (Neon) — podcast2. Sean Penn for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast3. Paul Mescal for Hamnet (Focus)4. Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast5. Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast
Major Threats6. Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly (Netflix) — podcast7. Billy Crudup for Jay Kelly (Netflix)8. Miles Caton for Sinners (Warner Bros.)9. Delroy Lindo for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast10. Jack O’Connell for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Possibilities11. Jeremy Strong for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century) — podcast12. Mark Hamill for The Life of Chuck (Neon) — podcast13. William H. Macy for Train Dreams (Netflix)14. Kevin O’Leary for Marty Supreme (A24)15. Jacobi Jupe for Hamnet (Focus)
Long Shots16. Jonathan Bailey for Wicked: For Good (Universal)17. Ben Foster for Christy (Black Bear)18. David Jonsson for The Long Walk (Lionsgate)19. Damson Idris for F1: The Movie (Apple/Warner Bros.)20. Andrew Scott for Blue Moon (Sony Classics)
Still to See/Under EmbargoAlexander Skarsgård for Pillion (A24)
Best Supporting Actress
Frontrunners1. Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good (Universal) — podcast2. Amy Madigan for Weapons (Warner Bros.)3. Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)4. Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value (Neon) — podcast5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value (Neon)
Major Threats6. Regina Hall for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)7. Hailee Steinfeld for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast8. Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners (Warner Bros.)9. Mia Goth for Frankenstein (Netflix)10. Odessa A’zion for Marty Supreme (A24)
Possibilities11. Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme (A24)12. Emily Blunt for The Smashing Machine (A24) — podcast13. Emily Watson for Hamnet (Focus)14. Zoey Deutch for Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — podcast15. Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside) — podcast
Long Shots16. Kerry Condon for Train Dreams (Netflix)17. Felicity Jones for Train Dreams (Netflix)18. Odessa Young for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)19. Nina Hoss for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)20. Kirsten Dunst for Roofman (Paramount) — podcast
Still to See/Under EmbargoSigourney Weaver for Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunners1. Hamnet (Focus) — Chloé Zhao2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson3. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Guillermo del Toro — podcast 1 and 24. Bugonia (Focus) — Will Tracy5. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Major Threats6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — Rian Johnson7. No Other Choice (Neon) — Park Chan-wook, Lee Ja-hye, Lee Kyoung-mi & Don McKellar8. Nuremberg (Sony Classics) — James Vanderbilt9. The Smashing Machine (A24) — Benny Safdie10. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century) — Scott Cooper
Possibilities11. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Dana Fox & Winnie Holzman12. Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Nia DaCosta13. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — Holly Gent, Michèle Halberstadt, Laetitia Masson & Vincent Palmo14. The Life of Chuck (Neon) — Mike Flanagan
Long Shots15. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (Focus) — Julian Fellowes — podcast16. Highest 2 Lowest (A24) — Alan Fox17. Die My Love (Mubi) — Alice Birch, Lynne Ramsay & Enda Walsh18. Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix) — Rowan Joffé
Still to See/Under EmbargoAvatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — James Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunners1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler2. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt3. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie4. It Was Just an Accident (Neon) — Jafar Panahi5. Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer
Major Threats6. A House of Dynamite (Netflix) — Noah Oppenheim7. Weapons (Warner Bros.) — Zach Cregger8. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho9. Rental Family (Searchlight) — Stephen Blahut & Hikari
Possibilities10. Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — Robert Kaplow11. Dead Man’s Wire (Row K) — Austin Kolodney12. Roofman (Paramount) — Derek Cianfrance & Kirt Gunn13. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight) — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell & Bradley Cooper
Long Shots14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) — Mary Bronstein15. Sorry, Baby (A24) — Eva Victor17. Left-Handed Girl (Netflix) — Sean Baker & Shih-Ching Tsou — podcast (Baker)16. Materialists (A24) — Celine Song
Best International Feature
Frontrunners1. Norway — Sentimental Value (Neon)2. France — It Was Just an Accident (Neon)3. South Korea — No Other Choice (Neon)4. Brazil — The Secret Agent (Neon)5. Ukraine — 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS)
Major Threats6. Spain — Sirāt (Neon)7. Taiwan — Left-Handed Girl (Netflix)8. Belgium — Young Mothers (Music Box)9. Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab (Willa)10. Japan — Kokuho (GKIDS)
Possibilities11. Argentina — Belén (Amazon)12. Iraq — The President’s Cake (Sony Classics)13. North Macedonia — The Tale of Silyan (Nat Geo)14. Germany — Sound of Falling (Mubi)
Still to See/Under EmbargoCanada — The Things You Kill (Cineverse)Chile — The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo (still seeking U.S. distribution)China — Dead to Rights (still seeking U.S. distribution)Czech Republic — I’m Not Everything I Want to Be (still seeking U.S. distribution)Denmark — Mr. Nobody Against Putin (still seeking U.S. distribution)Hungary — Orphan (still seeking U.S. distribution)Iceland — The Love That Remains (Janus)Ireland — Sanatorium (still seeking U.S. distribution)Israel — The Sea (still seeking U.S. distribution)Italy — Familia (still seeking U.S. distribution)Jordan — All That’s Left of You (Watermelon/Visibility)Mexico — We Shall Not Be Moved (still seeking U.S. distribution)Palestine — Palestine 36 (Watermelon)Philippines — Magellan (Janus)Poland — Franz (Cohen Media Group)Senegal — Demba (still seeking U.S. distribution)Switzerland — Late Shift (Music Box)Thailand — A Useful Ghost (Cineverse)
Best Documentary Feature
Frontrunners1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS)3. Orwell: 2+2=5 (Neon)4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)5. The Alabama Solution (HBO)
Major Threats6. My Mom Jayne (HBO)7. Cover-Up (Netflix)8. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple)9. Riefenstahl (Kino Lorber)10. Deaf President Now! (Apple)11. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (Kino Lorber)12. It’s Never Over, Jeff Buckley (Magnolia)
Possibilities13. The Tale of Silyan (Nat Geo)14. Natchez (Oscilloscope)15. The Man Who Saves the World? (Area 23a)16. Predators (MTV)17. Holding Liat (still seeking U.S. distribution)18. Prime Minister (Magnolia)
Long Shots19. Folktales (Magnolia)20. Coexistence, My Ass! (still seeking U.S. distribution)21. Stiller & Meara: Nothing Is Lost (Apple)22. One to One: John & Yoko (Magnolia)23. Grand Theft Hamlet (Mubi)24. Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass)
Still to See/Under EmbargoThe 6 Billion Dollar Man (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Age of Disclosure (Relentless)Always (still seeking U.S. distribution)American Sons (still seeking U.S. distribution)Antidote (PBS)Architecton (A24)Art for Everybody (Fourth Art)Below the Clouds (Mubi)Blknws: Terms & Conditions (still seeking U.S. distribution)BTS Army: Forever We Are Young (still seeking U.S. distribution)Can’t Look Away: The Case Against Social Media (Jolt)Champions of the Golden Valley (still seeking U.S. distribution)Child of Dust (still seeking U.S. distribution)Cutting Through Rocks (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Dating Game (still seeking U.S. distribution)El Canto de Las Manos (still seeking U.S. distribution)Endless Cookie (Obscured)Facing War (still seeking U.S. distribution)Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea (still seeking U.S. distribution)Heightened Scrutiny (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Last Class (Abramorama)The Librarians (Independent Lens)Life After (Multitude)Love+War (Nat Geo)Marlee Matlin: Not Alone Anymore (Kino Lorber)Meanwhile (Abramorama)Mistress Dispeller (Oscilloscope)Mr. Nobody Against Putin (still seeking U.S. distribution)Night in West Texas (still seeking U.S. distribution)Norita (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Road Between Us: The Ultimate Rescue (Forston Consulting)The Rose: Come Back to Me (CJ 4DPlex)A Savage Art: The Life & Cartoons of Pat Oliphant (Magnolia)Seeds (still seeking U.S. distribution)Selena y Los Dinos (Netflix)Shari & Lamb Chop (Kino Lorber)Songs from the Hole (Netflix)Stop the Insanity: Finding Susan Powter (Obscured)The Stringer (Netflix)Third Act (still seeking U.S. distribution)Timestamp (still seeking U.S. distribution)Trade Secret (still seeking U.S. distribution)Trains (EPF Media)Viktor (still seeking U.S. distribution)Wisdom of Happiness (Abramorama)Zodiac Killer Project (Music Box)
Best Animated Feature
Frontrunners1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)2. Arco (Neon)3. In Your Dreams (Netflix)4. Elio (Disney/Pixar)
Major Threats5. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle (Sony)
Possibilities
Long Shots6. Fixed (Netflix)
Still to See/Under EmbargoThe Bad Guys 2 (Universal)ChaO (GKIDS)Dog Man (Universal)Endless Cookie (Obscured)The Legend of Hei 2 (GKIDS)Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS)Lost in Starlight (Netflix)A Magnificent Life (Sony Classics)Scarlet (Sony Classics)The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants (Paramount)Stitch Head (Briarcliff)The Twits (Netflix)Zootopia 2 (Disney)
Best Casting
Frontrunners1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis3. Hamnet (Focus) — Nina Gold4. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jennifer Venditti5. Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Douglas Aibel & Nina Gold
Major Threats6. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey7. A House of Dynamite (Netflix) — Susanne Scheel8. Weapons (Warner Bros.) — Allison Jones9. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman10. Rental Family (Searchlight) — Kei Kawamura & Yumi Takada11. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — Stéphane Batut12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century) — Francine Maisler
Possibilities13. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Robin D. Cook14. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Gabriel Domingues15. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — Bret Howe & Mary Vernieu16. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight) — Shayna Markowitz17. The Life of Chuck (Neon) — Anne McCarthy, Morgan Robbins & Kellie Roy18. Dead Man’s Wire (Row K) — Kathy Campbell
Long Shots19. Bugonia (Focus) — Jennifer Venditti20. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Lucy Bevan & Emily Brockmann21. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Nike Imoru & Avy Kaufman22. Roofman (Paramount) — Bonnie Timmermann23. The Long Walk (Lionsgate) — Rich Delia24. Song Sung Blue (Focus) — Lindsay Graham & Mary Vernieu
Still to See/Under EmbargoAvatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Margery Simkin
Best Cinematography
Frontrunners1. Hamnet (Focus) — Lukasz Zal2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman3. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Dan Laustsen4. F1 (Apple) — Claudio Miranda5. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Major Threats6. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso7. Marty Supreme (A24) — Darius Khondji8. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — David Chambille9. Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Linus Sandgren10. A House of Dynamite (Netflix) — Barry Ackroyd11. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Alice Brooks
Possibilities12. No Other Choice (Neon) — Kim Woo-hyung13. Weapons (Warner Bros.) — Larkin Seiple14. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Kasper Tuxen15. Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Sean Bobbitt16. Bugonia (Focus) — Robbie Ryan17. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) — Christopher Messina18. Late Shift (Music Box) — Judith Kaufmann
Long Shots19. Sound of Falling (Mubi) — Fabian Gamper20. 28 Years Later (Sony) — Anthony Dod Mantle21. The Smashing Machine (A24) — Maceo Bishop22. Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix) — James Friend23. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight) — Matthew Libatique24. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century) — Masanobu Takayanagi25. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Evgenia Alexandrova
Still to See/Under EmbargoAvatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Russell Carpenter
Best Costume Design
Frontrunners1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ruth E. Carter (podcast)2. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Paul Tazewell3. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Kate Hawley4. Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Lindsay Pugh5. Hamnet (Focus) — Malgosia Turzanska
Major Threats6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside) — Colleen Atwood & Christine Cantella7. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Colleen Atwood8. Marty Supreme (A24) — Miyako Bellizzi9. The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — Małgorzata Karpiuk10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (Disney) — Alexandra Byrne
Possibilities11. Kokuho (GKIDS) — Kumiko Ogawa12. Downton Abbey (Focus) — Anna Robbins13. The Phoenecian Scheme (Focus) — Milena Canonero14. Song Sung Blue (Focus) — Ernesto Martinez15. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Rita Azevedo
Long Shots16. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — Pascaline Chavanne17. Nuremberg (Sony Classics) — Bartholomew Cariss18. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Malgosia Turzanska19. Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix) — Lisy Christl20. F1: The Movie (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Julian Day
Still to See/Under EmbargoAvatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Deborah L. Scott
Best Film Editing
Frontrunners1. F1: The Movie (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Michael Shawver4. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie5. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Evan Schiff
Major Threats6. Hamnet (Focus) — Affonso Gonçalves & Chloé Zhao7. A House of Dynamite (Netflix) — Kirk Baxter8. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Olivier Bugge Coutté9. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Myron Kerstein10. Bugonia (Focus) — Yorgos Mavropsaridis11. Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Valerio Bonelli & Rachel Durance
Possibilities12. Weapons (Warner Bros.) — Joe Murphy13. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix) — Viridiana Lieberman14. No Other Choice (Neon) — Kim Sang-bum15. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Matheus Farias & Eduardo Serrano16. The Lost Bus (Apple) — Peter M. Dudgeon, William Goldenberg & Paul Rubell
Long Shots17. Dead Man’s Wire (Row K) — Saar Klein18. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — Catherine Schwartz19. Warfare (A24) — Fin Oates20. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS) — Michelle Minzer21. Sirāt (Neon) — Cristóbal Fernández
Still to See/Under EmbargoAvatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua & Stephen E. Rivkin
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frontrunners1. Frankenstein (Netflix)2. The Smashing Machine (A24)3. Wicked: For Good (Universal)4. Sinners (Warner Bros.)5. Weapons (Warner Bros.)
Major Threats28 Years Later (Sony)Bugonia (Focus)Hedda (Amazon/MGM)Kokuho (GKIDS)
PossibilitiesKiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside)Christy (Black Bear)One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)Predator: Badlands (20th Century)
Long ShotsSuperman (Warner Bros.)The Life of Chuck (Neon)Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)Blue Moon (Sony Classics)
Best Original Score
FrontrunnersSinners (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig GöranssonOne Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Johnny GreenwoodHamnet (Focus) — Max RichterFrankenstein (Netflix) — Alexandre DesplatJay Kelly (Netflix) — Nicholas Britell
Major ThreatsF1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Hans Zimmer (podcast)Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Hildur GuðnadóttirSirāt (Neon) — Kangding RayMarty Supreme (A24) — Daniel LopatinA House of Dynamite (Netflix) — Volker BertelmannTron: Ares (Disney) — Trent Reznor & Atticus RossWicked: For Good (Universal) — John Powell and Stephen SchwartzTrain Dreams (Netflix) — Bryce Dessner
PossibilitiesAfter the Hunt (Amazon/MGM) — Trent Reznor & Atticus RossDead Man’s Wire (Row K) — Danny ElfmanThe Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — Daniel BlumbergBugonia (Focus) — Jerskin FendrixRental Family (Searchlight) – Jónsi and Alex SomersNuremberg (Sony Classics) — Brian TylerJurassic World Rebirth (Universal) — Alexandre DesplatThunderbolts* (Disney) — Son Lux
Long ShotsThe Fantastic Four: First Steps (Disney) — Michael GiacchinoCaptain America: Brave New World (Disney) — Laura KarpmanBallad of a Small Player (Netflix) — Volker BertelmannWake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — Nathan JohnsonSuperman (Warner Bros.) — David Fleming & John MurphySentimental Value (Neon) — Hania RaniNo Other Choice (Neon) — Jo Yeong-wookWeapons (Warner Bros.) — Zach Cregger, Hays Holladay & Ryan Holladay
Still to See/Under EmbargoAvatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Simon Franglen
Best Original Song
Frontrunners1. “Golden” from KKPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) — EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Raphael Saadiq & Ludwig Göransson3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass) — Diane Warren (podcast)4. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (A24) — Aiyana-Lee Anderson & Nicole Daciana Anderson5. “Drive” from F1: The Movie (Apple/Warner Bros.) — John Mayer, Ed Sheeran & Blake Slatkin
Major Threats6. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked (Universal) — Stephen Schwartz7. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked (Universal) — Stephen Schwartz8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson & Alice Smith9. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix) — Nick Cave & Bryce Dessner10. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — Daniel Blumberg
Possibilities11. “Lose My Mind” from F1: The Movie (Warner Bros.) — Grant Boutin, Amala Dlamini aka Doja Cat, Ryan Tedder, Caleb Toliver aka Toliver & Hans Zimmer (podcast)12. “Just Keep Watching” from F1: The Movie (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Amy Allen, Tate McRae, Tyler Spry & Ryan Tedder13. “As Alive as You Need Me to Be” from Tron: Ares (Disney) — Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross14. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me In the Good Light (Apple) — Sara Bareilles, Brandi Carlile & Andrea Gibson15. “My Baby (Got Nothing at All)” from Materialists (A24) — Michelle Zauner aka Japanese Breakfast
Long Shots16. “Trunks” from Highest 2 Lowest (A24) — Rakim Mayers aka A$AP Rocky & Kelvin Krash17. “Stolen Tale” from Hedda — Nia DaCosta and Hildur Guðnadóttir18. “He Lei Pāpahi No Lilo a me Stitch” from Lilo & Stitch (Disney) — Mark Kealiʻi Hoʻomalu19. “My Sweet Beth” from The Naked Gun (Paramount) — Greg Chun & Akiva Schaffer20. “John’s Running Song” from The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — Daniel Blumberg & Mona Fastvold
Still to See/Under Embargo“Baby” from Freakier Friday (Disney) — Sarah Aarons“DOA” from Death of a Unicorn (A24) — Annie Clark aka St. Vincent“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Miley Cyrus, Simon Franglen, Mark Ronson (podcast) and Andrew Wyatt“Dying to Live” from Billy Idol Should Be Dead (Fremantle) — Tommy English, Billy Idol, Joe Janiak, J. Ralph (podcast) & Steve Stevens (podcast)“Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (Focus) — Tom Basden“Let’s Just Rock Again” from Spinal Tap II: The End Continues (Bleecker Street) — Jeffery CJ Vanston“Open the Door” from The Twits (Netflix) — David Byrne (podcast) & Hayley Williams“The Song (Love Is All)” from O’Dessa (Hulu) — Jason Binnick & Geremy Jasper“Through the Long and Lonely Night” from The Legend of Ochi (A24) — David Longstreth“Took a Walk” from The Long Walk (Lionsgate) — Collins Obinna Chibueze aka Shaboozey & Stephen Wilson Jr.“Zoo” — Zootopia 2 — Shakira, Ed Sheeran & Blake Slatkin
Best Production Design
Frontrunners1. Hamnet (Focus) — Fiona Crombie2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Hannah Beachler3. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell4. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Florencia Martin5. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jack Fisk
Major Threats6. F1: The Movie (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Mark Tildesley7. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Nathan Crowley8. A House of Dynamite (Netflix) — Jeremy Hindle9. Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Mark Tildesley10. Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Cara Brower11. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Jørgen Stangebye Larsen12. Roofman (Paramount) — Inbal Weinberg
Possibilities13. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — Katia Wyszkop14. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Fiona Crombie & Alice Felton15. No Other Choice (Neon) — Ryu Seong-hie16. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Thales Junqueira17. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (Disney) — Kasra Farahani18. Predator: Badlands (20th Century) — Ra Vincent19. Tron: Ares (Disney) — Darren Gilford
Long Shots20. Weapons (Warner Bros.) — Thomas Hammock21. Mickey 17 (Warner Bros.) — Fiona Crombie22. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — Rick Heinrichs23. Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside) — Scott Chambliss24. Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix) — Jonathan Houlding25. The Life of Chuck (Neon) — Steve Arnold26. Dead Man’s Wire (Row K) — Stefan Dechant
Still to See/Under EmbargoAvatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
Best Sound
Frontrunners1. F1: The Movie (Apple/Warner Bros.)2. Sinners (Warner Bros.)3. Wicked: For Good (Universal)4. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)5. Frankenstein (Netflix)
Major Threats6. Hamnet (Focus)7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)8. Marty Supreme (A24)9. Warfare (A24)10. Superman (Warner Bros.)
Possibilities11. Predator: Badlands (20th Century)12. Jurassic World: Rebirth (Universal)13. Tron: Ares (Disney)14. Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning (Paramount)15. Weapons (Warner Bros.)
Long Shots16. A House of Dynamite (Netflix)17. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)18. The Smashing Machine (A24)19. Sirāt (Neon)20. The Lost Bus (Apple)
Still to See/Under EmbargoAvatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
Best Visual Effects
Frontrunners1. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)2. Wicked: For Good (Universal)3. Frankenstein (Netflix)4. Sinners (Warner Bros.)5. Superman (Warner Bros.)
Major Threats6. Predator: Badlands (20th Century)7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (Disney)8. Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning (Paramount)9. Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal)10. Tron: Ares (Disney)
Possibilities11. Thunderbolts* (Disney)12. How to Train Your Dragon (Universal)13. 28 Years Later (Sony)14. Mickey 17 (Warner Bros.)15. Marty Supreme (A24)
Long Shots16. Weapons (Warner Bros.)17. Warfare (A24)18. Lilo & Stitch (Disney)19. Bugonia (Focus)20. Sirāt (Neon)
Still to See/Under EmbargoAvatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
