Dune 2 Box Office Could Reach $175M Globally in Opening Weekend

Dune: Part Two is finally here, and movie theater operators couldn’t be happier.

After enduring one of the worst early winters in years (outside of the pandemic), theaters are banking on the Legendary and Warner Bros. tentpole to usher in a steady stream of event fare that was delayed by last year’s labor strikes. Year-to-date, the box office is running 18 percent behind last year, and more than 38 percent behind 2019.

Legendary made the difficult decision to delay the movie’s release from last fall to now so that Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya would be available to publicize the movie and help broaden out the audience. Both have sway with younger viewers.

In terms of Dune: Part Two’s potential this weekend, Warner Bros. and Legendary are being conservative in estimating a $65 million-plus domestic opening (their caution is understandable, since it runs two hours and 46 minutes). But tracking services have it reaching $74 million, while some box office observers believe it could cross $80 million based on advance ticket sales and stellar reviews. It holds a 97 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.

Overseas, it should open to at least $85 million when launching in 71 markets (it doesn’t go out in China until the following weekend, and Japan the weekend after that). Sci-fi can be a tough genre in some markets, such as parts of Latin America.

The long game, versus opening weekend, will be the true test for director Denis Villeneuve’s sequel in terms of solidifying a new franchise for Legendary. Released in 2021, Villeneuve’s Dune grossed more than $402 million at the worldwide box office, a solid and promising number considering pandemic pressures and the fact that it was released simultaneously on HBO Max. Villeneuve would like to make one more film, Dune: Messiah, while Warners has a spinoff series, Dune: Prophecy, due out on Max later this year.

The expansive cast includes series newcomers Austin Butler, Florence Pugh and Christopher Walken, joining Rebecca Ferguson, Javier Bardem, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgard, Dave Bautista and Charlotte Rampling.