The Swifties are getting ready to make box office history.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is headed for a record global opening for a concert film of $150 million to $200 million, including $100 million to $125 million in North America and $50 million to $75 million overseas.
AMC Theatres, which is distributing the concert pic on behalf of the superstar pop singer, is sticking to the more conservative estimate of $150 million globally, including $100 million domestically.
Swift’s film will begin screening 6 p.m. local time on Friday in more than 8,500 cinemas in roughly 100 countries, including in every AMC location in the U.S. Generally, a movie holds previews Thursday night before officially opening on Friday morning. (Eras Tour‘s truncated release makes it more difficult to predict its opening.)
In an unprecedented move, Swift’s team bypassed Hollywood studios and partnered directly with the world’s largest exhibitor — to bring the film to the big screen. AMC in turn is making Eras Tour available to other chains.
As of late last week, the concert film had racked up more than $100 million in advance ticket sales. And numerous shows in the U.S. are sold out over opening weekend.
Eras Tour will easily score the highest launch of all time for a concert film, as well as becoming the top-grossing concert pic of all time in its first weekend alone. It also should boast one of the biggest openings of the year despite its hefty running time of two hours and 48 minutes.
Like Barbie this summer, Swift’s pic will be powered by females. Younger female adults, teenagers and girls are notorious for repeat viewing, helping in part to explain why Barbie has earned north of $1.434 billion at the worldwide box office. Disney’s live-action reimaginings like Aladdin or Sleeping Beauty enjoy the same advantage, while females also turned Twilight and Hunger Games and into runaway blockbusters.
To date, 2011’s Justin Bieber: Never Say Never holds the record for the top-grossing concert film at the domestic box office with $73 million, not adjusted for inflation. It earned another $26 million overseas for a global total of $99 million. Michael Jackson’s 2009 posthumous documentary/concert film This Is It earned $72.1 million domestically and $181.9 million globally. After it topped the charts on its opening weekend, Sony extended the film’s two-week theatrical run for an additional three weeks domestically and one to three weeks in overseas territories.
A year earlier, Disney’s Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour broke records when opening to $31.1 million in North America over Super Bowl weekend as young girls flooded theaters. The pic topped out at $65.8 million domestically and $70.6 million globally.
And earlier this year, Trafalgar’s BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas earned more than $53 million globally in a limited theatrical event.
AMC CEO Adam Aron pulled off a coup in nabbing distribution rights to Taylor Swfit’s concert pic, which attracted the attention of multiple Hollywood studios, according to insiders. It’s unorthodox for a mega-theater circuit to distribute a movie since producers and filmmakers generally want a distributor with experience in marketing. At the same time, Eras Tour isn’t a normal release and will only play in theaters Thursday through Sunday after the first weekend. As of now, its plan is to play for four weekends.
The sky-high demand to see the movie comes after many consumers were unable to get tickets to see the Eras concert live. Swift’s tour, kicking off in March, smashed records in terms of attendance and revenue. It is now concluded in the U.S., with the pop singer She doesn’t begin touring overseas until November.
