Christmas revenue at the domestic box office is running behind 2022, a sobering stat as Hollywood studios and theater owners prepare to ring out a topsy-turvy year.
As it stands now, combined ticket sales in North America for the marquee holiday weekend (Dec. 22-Dec. 25) are down 7 percent from last year, although the gap could close somewhat if traffic picks up in earnest on Christmas afternoon once presents are unwrapped. (Studios never like it when Dec. 25 falls on a Monday, since many consumers use the weekend to finish final yuletide preparations.)
Either way, James Wan’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is headed for one of the lowest starts in the history of the DC Cinematic Universe with a projected four-day domestic gross of $38 million to $40 million, including $27 million to $28 million for the three days (numbers will be updated Monday morning.) The good news: It can still claim a No. 1 finish. Overseas, it took in $80.1 million from 72 markets — including a promising $30.4 million in China, where it turned in the biggest start of the year for a Hollywood superhero pic.
The big-budget tentpole, reteaming Wan and star Jason Momoa, has been largely rebuked by critics and only earned a B CinemaScore from audiences. The sequel, which faced a troubled road to the big screen, marks the end of an era as new DC chiefs James Gunn and Peter Safran are set to reboot the DC Universe with 2025’s Superman: Legacy. (Momoa himself has all but said there won’t be an Aquaman threequel.)
In 2018, the first Aquaman was the king of the year-end holiday when swimming to a three-day opening of $67.9 million over the Dec. 21-23 weekend. Through Christmas Day — a Tuesday that year — its domestic tally was a rousing $105.4 million (that included several million in special sneak peeks the previous weekend). The movie went on to earn $335.1 million domestically and $1.15 billion globally, the best showing ever for a DCEU title, not adjusted for inflation.
Wan’s movie lends further credence to the superhero fatigue theory. Even the most ardent fanboys are weary. Aquaman 2 is also trailing the recent $46.1 million opening of box office debacle The Marvels from rival Marvel Studios.
A slew of other films also opened Friday, and the Warners empire is feeling particularly giving. The studio has no fewer than three year-end holiday event movies: Aquaman 2; Wonka, which opened last weekend; and The Color Purple. It’s a daring feat, to say the least, as the latter two are musicals. (Like The Color People, several other holiday titles waited until Monday to unfurl, including The Boys in the Boat and Ferrari.)
In yet another test of the appetite for theatrical animated fare, and especially original stories, Illumination and Universal are contributing Migration to the holiday mix for families.
The animated tentpole, which earned an A CinemaScore, is expected to earn $12.5 million for the weekend proper from 3,761 theaters and $17.2 million for the four days, ahead of what some tracking services had predicted but still the lowest start in the history of Illumination, not adjusting for inflation. The movie is doing muted business so far overseas, for a projected foreign tally of $22 million from 43 markets through Sunday.
The final verdict on Migration won’t be rendered until New Year’s weekend, as there is no more lucrative stretch of the movie going year than the week between Christmas and New Year’s.
Migration is looking at a No. 3 weekend finish behind Aquaman and Wonka. Starring Timothée Chalamet, Wonka is on course to earn an estimated $28 million.
Columbia/Sony’s edgy romantic-comedy Anyone but You is unwrapping a fourth-place finish with an estimated $8 million from 3,055 theaters for the four days. The new pic, starring Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell, earned a B+ CinemaScore. (No studio likes anything other than some variation of an A grade for most movies.)
Females make up nearly 80 percent of all patrons buying tickets to see the rom-com, while males make up at least 66 percent of A24’s Zac Efron-led wrestling family drama The Iron Claw, another title on the Christmas marquee movie. Iron Claw is pacing to open to $6.1 million, also slightly ahead of tracking.
At the specialty box office, Searchlight Pictures opened Andrew Haigh’s acclaimed All of Us Strangers in four locations in New York and Los Angeles. The awards contender is looking at an estimated location average of $43,000 for four days, one of the best averages of the year.
Final numbers for the four-day weekend will be released on Tuesday.
Dec. 24, 8 a.m.: Updated with revised weekend estimates.Dec. 24 8:10 a.m.: Updated with revised estimates.
This story was originally published on Dec. 23 at 8:23 a.m.
