This year has had plenty of ups and downs at the box office, but 2025 should end on a high note thanks to the new releases on deck for the holiday season. Disney will have a much-needed rebound with the premiere of Zootopia 2 and James Cameron should continue his dominance over the box office with Avatar: Fire and Ash. But before those highly anticipated movies debut, theater owners are set to get a boon in the form of Wicked: For Good, the follow-up to last year’s Wicked. Based on the popularity of the source material, Wicked: For Good could easily become one of the highest-grossing films of the year.
But before Universal sees a profit on the fantasy musical, Wicked: For Good needs to earn back its costs. With extravagant production design, elaborate costumes, state-of-the-art visual effects, and an extensive marketing campaign, a blockbuster like Wicked: For Good is not a cheap investment. But based on the way things are looking right now, the studio could come close to recouping expenses shortly after the film hits theaters this weekend.
What Is Wicked: For Good‘s Production Budget?
The production budget for Wicked: For Good is reportedly $150 million, which is the same figure the first film cost. That means combined, the two movies represent a $300 million investment on the part of Universal. While $150 million certainly isn’t anything to sneeze at, Wicked: For Good is actually on the cheaper side when compared to some of its studio tentpole contemporaries. For instance, Captain America: Brave New World sported a price tag of $180 million, and Superman cost $225 million. Prior to Wicked: For Good, the last big-budget franchise title to arrive in theaters was Tron: Ares, which cost $180 million.
It is important to keep in mind that all of these figures are just for the film’s production. Production budgets do not include any marketing expenses, and promotional campaigns for studio tentpoles can add a lot of money to the bottom line. Studios want these types of films to perform well at the box office, so they go above and beyond with advertising to build buzz and awareness, so the two Wicked films actually cost more than the aforementioned $300 million number.
Wicked: For Good Is Projected for One of the Year’s Biggest Box Office Openings
Universal executives felt comfortable signing those big checks because they knew they would see substantial return on investment. Box office trends seem to be changing a bit (2025 was arguably the year the superhero movie bubble burst), but the Wicked films are reliable draws. In late October, initial box office projections for Wicked: For Good estimated that the musical would bring in between $112-115 million domestically in its opening weekend. That ballpark was in line with how the first Wicked performed last year ($112.5 million). Now that For Good‘s release date is closer, it looks like the grand finale could be an even bigger hit than originally anticipated.
The latest box office projections for Wicked: For Good (via Deadline) indicate the film could earn as much as $200+ million worldwide, with $125-150+ million of that coming from the domestic box office alone. The increased estimates seem to be a byproduct of Wicked: For Good breaking a Fandango pre-sales record in the weeks leading up to its premiere, illustrating how excited viewers are to see the film. While Wicked: For Good will surely be a huge hit, it remains to be seen how much it will actually bring in over its opening weekend. The high pre-sales make it difficult to track the full weekend; the first Wicked was projected to earn roughly $120 million domestically and fell short of that figure. It’s possible Wicked: For Good could have the same fate — especially if the somewhat mixed reviews have any impact on the box office.
How Much Wicked: For Good Needs to Make to Be a Success
The general rule of thumb is that a movie needs to earn double its production budget to break even at the box office. This accounts for the marketing expenses that are on top of production costs. With this in mind, Wicked: For Good needs to gross around $300 million globally in order to recoup all expenses. Seeing that it’s currently estimated to bring in $200 million worldwide just in one weekend, it should have no problems clearing that $300 million total soon. Even with the impending arrival of Zootopia 2, Wicked: For Good will continue to be a huge draw throughout Thanksgiving week, mirroring what happened last year with Moana 2 and Wicked.
By the end of its theatrical run, Wicked: For Good should have soared past the $300 million mark. For context, the first Wicked made $758.8 million worldwide, a figure For Good should match or even exceed. It’s one of the few films left on the 2025 calendar that has a legitimate shot at earning $1 billion. As we saw with the record-breaking The Conjuring: Last Rites, a film billed as the conclusion to a lucrative series has a chance to exceed projections and become an even bigger event since it’s the last time audiences can see the story on the big screen. But even if For Good falls short of reaching $1 billion, Universal will have plenty to be happy about this holiday season.
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