The entertainment world is still trying to catch its breath after Netflix confirmed its plan to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for a staggering $82.7 billion. This looks like a historic power grab, but overseas analysts are already picking apart the fallout and the possible headaches this deal could unleash.
As someone who doesn’t like the idea of Netflix swallowing a legacy studio like Warner Bros. Discovery, I have to admit the concerns feel justified.
One of the strongest warnings arrived fast from François Godard, Media and Telecoms Analyst at Enders Analysis. He did not sugarcoat his reaction to Netflix taking control of the studio behind prestige hits.
“My first reaction is, watch out, Netflix,” he said. “The merger of Warner Bros. and Discovery destroyed value, and the risk is that this new deal will also produce a result smaller than the addition of the parts.
“HBO, the most brilliant TV creative house survived Zaslav, but will it die under Netflix” The idea of HBO losing its identity under Netflix is exactly the nightmare many fans have been dreading.
Not everyone is sounding the alarm though. Guy Bisson, Executive Director of Ampere Analysis, framed the deal as expected given Netflix’s trajectory.
Calling it “big news, but not unexpected” he expanded with “It was clear to me from what Ted Sarandos said at the last quarterly results that WBD was a priority target for Netflix It makes a lot of sense and Netflix has been evolving strongly in the direction of a vertically integrated studio operation for several years.
“This deal takes it to the next level with a suite of IP it would take decades to build on its own, and it won’t have gone unnoticed that HBO content performs extremely well on Netflix.” Yes the IP library is massive, but the cost of smashing two very different creative cultures together could be far higher.
Jack Davison, Executive Vice President at 3Vision, pointed out the strategic messiness that will follow. Netflix has long avoided theatrical releases while Warner Bros. still leans heavily on them.
Distributors and sellers are staring down a future where their existing agreements with Netflix and HBO Max might be reworked or wiped away.
Davison put it plainly. “This opens up loads of questions about how Netflix works with the IP and catalog they acquire, in terms of theatrical strategy for movies does it maintain its limited interest here and any third party activity with everything else.
“Will everything end up solely on Netflix There will be a lot of global video service providers wondering what happens next for their proposition as there will be implications for a lot of them.” The uncertainty is sure to keep half the industry on edge.
Netflix claimed in its announcement that it plans to “maintain Warner Bros.’ current operations” but it is hard to believe nothing significant will change. Bisson even suggested that HBO Max might get spun off to someone else.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Comcast lined up to take that on,” he said, adding that it would instantly give Comcast the global streaming reach it has been chasing.
The timing only complicates everything. HBO Max has been rolling out across the world with launches in Germany, Italy and the UK locked in for 2026. WBD has been hyping new programming and just dropped a fresh trailer for A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms.
Yet if Netflix takes over, the platform’s days may already be numbered. “HBO Max, due to launch next quarter in the UK, Germany and Italy, would already be scheduled to close,” Godard explained. A combined Netflix and HBO Max subscriber force of roughly four hundred fifty million would set off instant antitrust alarms, so shutting it down might be the only option.
Another wrinkle is that Netflix will not gain everything in the WBD portfolio. The deal completes only after Discovery Global spins out in 2026. Godard broke down the fallout, saying: “Linear channels are out of the deal and so TNT in the UK and Eurosport elsewhere in Europe would remain in whatever legacy corporate vehicle would be left after the sale to Netflix.
“I don’t think that alone, without the backing of a streamer, TNT and Eurosport have a sustainable future.” He floated the idea that Paramount might make a move for TNT which would require buying out BT and striking a fresh distribution deal with Sky. Meanwhile Discovery’s European channels could attract interest from existing broadcasters and Godard noted Discovery Italy could be appealing to Sky Italia.
So while Netflix is treating this acquisition like the final piece of its global streaming empire the ripple effects feel far more chaotic.
The creative identity of HBO is at stake theatrical and licensing partners face major shakeups and key pieces of the WBD business might scatter to different owners. If this is the future of streaming it is hard not to feel uneasy about where it leaves the storytellers and the fans.
