Every awards body this month has been forced to grapple with the same debate: Continue with their nominations and honors as scheduled, to provide some distraction and sense of normalcy in the face of the Los Angeles wildfires. Or delay and/or cancel their ceremonies, out of respect for those who have lost so much in L.A., and to allow people to focus on a path towards recovery.
Personally, I see merits on both sides of this debate. I went through the same debate in the decision to publish these 12th annual mathematical predictions of the Oscar nominees, or whether to hold off until it’s time to predict the winners a month from now. Ultimately, I decided to follow the Academy’s lead on this – if they’re rolling along with Oscar season, so will I.
The predictions that follow are based on weighting the key inputs of awards season to date, with more weight going to those inputs that have done a better job of predicting the nominees in each category in the past. This provides not only a set of predicted nominees, but also a snapshot of the race to win each category. Last year’s model predicted 10/10 best picture nominees, but perhaps this year we’ll get to see some more upsets. On to the mathematical predictions…
Best Picture
Starting from the top, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Anora are locks, and are serious threats to win the whole thing. A Complete Unknown got a late boost from the Directors Guild, and should join Emilia Pérez, Dune: Part Two, and Wicked in the top ten.
Then it gets interesting, with a quintet of films landing in that grey area between 25 percent and 75 percent: You could easily look at the awards season resumes of any of Nickel Boys, The Substance, Sing Sing, September 5, or A Real Pain and make a compelling case that each should be favored among this lower tier. It would be quite a surprise to see any of them vault all the way onto the Dolby stage, but for now, just hearing their names called Thursday morning would be a major victory.
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Best Director
Unsurprisingly, the math sees the same top three for best picture and best director: The Brutalist (Brady Corbet), Anora (Sean Baker), and Conclave (Edward Berger).
For the others, all of their films have the merit to earn them a nomination, but all of their Oscar paths have pitfalls. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), the leader of the next group of names, missed a Directors Guild nomination, and so on down the list.
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Best Actor
For a third category in a row, we have The Brutalist at the top, this time represented by leading actor contender Adrien Brody. But it’s hard to see much separation between Brody and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), for those trying to handicap the March race in January.
Down at the bottom of the list, you’re not seeing double: Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice, A Different Man) has not one but two movies that could get him onto this list. Neither in and of itself is all that likely, so his odds of becoming the first person in Oscars history with multiple leading acting nominations in the same year are low.
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Best Actress
At first blush, this is looking like a thrilling two-way race between Mikey Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (The Substance). But there’s still a path for an incredible late-momentum story to be told: Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) upset the field to win the Golden Globe for best actress in a drama, and while she doesn’t have enough other honors to rank higher at this juncture, the Golden Globe honor is a strong first step. With only four nominees above 50 percent to get nominated, that last spot feels like it could come from just about anywhere on the list.
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Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is off to a great start this awards season, making a clean sweep of the key nominations and capping it off with a Golden Globe win. If someone is going to derail his momentum, it’s probably Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Yura Borisov (Anora), or Guy Pearce (The Brutalist).
While Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) would appear to be the most likely fifth-nominees, the Screen Actors Guild took everyone by surprise when they opted for Jonathan Bailey (Wicked).
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Best Supporting Actress
Emilia Pérez has at least some chance at a double-nomination in two categories (supporting actress and original song). As for supporting actress, Zoe Saldaña is a lock, while Selena Gomez is going to need a little luck. The other strong competitors here are Ariana Grande (Wicked) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave).
Some may raise eyebrows at Felicity Jones’ low ranking for her role in The Brutalist, but the model knocked her down a peg for a lack of a Screen Actors Guild or Critics Choice nod, potentially opening the door for someone else to take her place on the Oscars list.
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Best Original Screenplay
We’ve got a pair of awards-season-style comedies (that is, comedies that still deal with serious themes) at the top, in Anora and A Real Pain. Close behind are The Brutalist and The Substance.
After that, in my view, this is the hardest of the major categories for which to predict the full list of nominees. Challengers is a very weak frontrunner at just 35 percent. Kneecap makes the list by virtue of the BAFTAs – though hardly anyone else – recognizing their work. Hard Truths is a popular pick despite a series of disappointments in earlier nomination announcements. If you’re making predictions here, pick your favorite script and hope for the best.
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Best Adapted Screenplay
The model for this category normally has the advantage of relying on the USC Scripter Awards, a decent bellwether for best adapted screenplay. But this year, the Scripter nominations were delayed until less than 24 hours before the Oscar nominations announcement, well after this article goes to print.
In the absence of that data point, the remainder of the inputs point to Golden Globe winner Conclave as the frontrunner, followed by Nickel Boys, Emilia Pérez, and Sing Sing. But A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, and Wicked aren’t far behind at all.
Reasonable minds can differ on whether awards season should roll along right now in LA. But rolling along it is, so on Thursday morning we’ll learn who’s still in the race.
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Ben Zauzmer is the author of Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood.
